2013 NFL Draft Trade-Down Scenarios

The availability of Florida International safety Johnathan Cyprien (right) could induce teams to trade back into the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. (Photo: US Presswire)

NEPD Editor: Matthew Jones

Although the Pittsburgh Steelers decided to match the New England Patriots’ offer sheet for restricted free agent Emmanuel Sanders, declining New England’s third-round pick as acceptable compensation for Sanders, the Patriots remain surprisingly inflexible in terms of draft capital as this month’s 2013 NFL Draft approaches, with only five selections. In order to maneuver around the draft board effectively, New England will likely be required to trade down at some point for additional picks; trading down from the #29 overall pick offers the Patriots their best opportunity to replenish their missing draft picks. In this article, we’ll look at five potential trades the Patriots could make on draft day.

1. New England trades the #29 overall pick (640) to the Jacksonville Jaguars for the #33 overall pick, the #135 overall pick, and the #169 overall pick (643.3)

This trade is almost exactly even on the trade value chart; although Jacksonville may be interested in conserving their picks, they will likely have to sacrifice a package similar to this if they would like to re-enter the first round. Florida International strong safety Johnathan Cyprien, who conducted a private workout with the Jaguars, is receiving considerable interest from teams in the late first and early second rounds, so Jacksonville could be interested in leapfrogging the likes of San Francisco and Baltimore to secure him. Additionally, Jacksonville may be interested in a quarterback such as E.J. Manuel or Ryan Nassib in the late first, both of whom were privately worked out as well.

2. New England trades the #29 overall pick (640) to the Philadelphia Eagles for the #35 overall pick and the #101 overall pick (646)

Another trade with a very low difference in trade value between the two parties, such a move would offer New England an early fourth-round pick as compensation for moving down six spaces; this trade could be even more appealing than executing a swap with Jacksonville, as the Patriots have a deep roster which may be better served by adding a fourth-round talent than by accumulating mid-to-late-round picks. Philadelphia could potentially be interested in a quarterback such as Matt Barkley or E.J. Manuel, or in ensuring that they are not leapfrogged for a prospect such as Stanford junior tight end Zach Ertz or Florida International strong safety Johnathan Cyprien, both of whom have been in contact with the Eagles during the pre-draft process.

3. New England trades the #29 overall pick (640) to the Cincinnati Bengals for the #37 overall pick, the #118 overall pick, the #156 overall pick, and the #190 overall pick (634.4)

Making a trade with Cincinnati is slightly more difficult than trading with Jacksonville or Philadelphia, primarily because Cincinnati lacks a high fourth-round selection. If the Patriots are willing to take a slight loss on the trade value chart, they could potentially work out a trade resembling this with the Bengals, assuming Cincinnati is willing to part with a handful of mid-to-late-round picks. The most likely target for the Bengals at this point would be Florida strong safety Matt Elam, who would offer Cincinnati a complement for Reggie Nelson in the defensive backfield. If the Bengals are serious about landing Elam, they may feel required to trade ahead of the Baltimore Ravens, who may be considering Elam as Bernard Pollard’s successor; they interviewed the former Gator at the NFL Combine.

4. New England trades the #29 overall pick (640) to the Arizona Cardinals for the #38 overall pick, the #103 overall pick, and the #140 overall pick (644)

It may be somewhat wishful to expect Arizona to give up three picks in this year’s draft after trading for Carson Palmer, but the Cardinals should probably be looking for a long-term option at the quarterback position and may be interested in moving back into the first round for their favorite option, whether that’s Matt Barkley (who Arizona held a private workout with and also interviewed at the NFL Combine), or another quarterback prospect such as Mike Glennon or Ryan Nassib (both of whom were brought in for private workouts.) The Cardinals also held a private workout with Johnathan Cyprien, who, as mentioned before, appears likely to be selected at some point during the first-round.

5. New England trades the #29 overall pick and the #91 overall pick (776) to the Tennessee Titans for the #40 overall pick, the #70 overall pick, and the #142 overall pick (775)

The other trades profiled in this article have involved just the #29 overall pick, but it may benefit New England more to include their third-round pick, #91 overall, in a trade similar to this one, which would allow New England to net an additional fifth-round pick while making a substantial move up the third-round draft board. Tennessee could be interested in getting ahead of teams such as Atlanta or Philadelphia for a tight end prospect such as Tyler Eifert; the Titans have also shown significant interest in this year’s crop of safeties, including Johnathan Cyprien, Matt Elam, and Eric Reid, all of whom held private workouts with Tennessee. If a prospect such as Louisiana St. middle linebacker Kevin Minter falls, that could interest the Titans as well.

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22 Responses to “2013 NFL Draft Trade-Down Scenarios”

  1. Jim Keddy says:

    With regard to trade value last year, the Patriots seemed to be desperate to trade down and acquire more picks. They received
    much less than equal value. They were fortunate that Dennard was available with the 7th round pick that they acquired.

    • Bob Shannon says:

      Hey Jim Keddy, Personally, I believe the Pats should trade up inside the top 12 and get a bonafide starter….Trade the 2nd rounder and next years 1st, for another chance to get back into the 1st round. Come away with two starters. Pick up some depth in the sixth and seventh rounds…go home and wait for camp to start….

  2. Rockdog says:

    Let’s hope the Pats get offers similar to these.

  3. NEPD says:

    Just FYI everyone – we’re going to be shutting down NEPD for a day or so here in light of the bombings in Boston. Will probably have content starting back up on Wednesday, but no guarantees.

    Prayers to all of our friends, readers and family in Boston. Stay safe.

  4. qazmlpgh says:

    I’m a fan of the Titans trade. The 2nd rounder is a bit later but we also get and early 3rd and a 5th I think. Would have 3 picks in the mid 2nd- early 3rd sweetspot.

  5. Russell Easterbrooks says:

    If Tampa wants QB Ryan Mallett and the #59 pick, for #43 and #112. The cost to Tampa would be about 230 draft value pts. ,equal to an early 3d round pick.
    Gain for the Patriots would be moving up in the 2nd round, by 17 picks, and a 4th rounder #112, ending with ;

    #29, #43, #91, #112, and two 7ths.

    • acm says:

      If BB has completely given up on mallet being a proper successor to Brady or even a good NFL QB, then a trade like that would make sense, considering the Pats gave up an earlish 3rd for him.

      Guess we’ll know more about how BB sees Mallet by how much he seeks in return in a possible trade and if he’s looking to trade him altogether.

    • Rockdog says:

      This would be the dumbest trade I could ever imagine. We’re going to give up a back-up QB we drafted in the 3rd and a 2nd round pick (#59) for a 2nd (#43), and a 4th (#112). Plus we then need to waste a pick on a QB. This is just a stupid suggestion.

      • Russell Easterbrooks says:

        Think again we have QB Kafka under contract already, and moving up in the second gives a better player and adding an early 4th.

      • cc says:

        The 3 musketeers DRAFT VALUE- NOT NEED.

        Hence the Mallet pick ( Stupid as it it was IMO).

    • John says:

      Image this.. (even though this is probally not going to happen cuz we need to trade down but you cant take out the possibility cuz its BB.)

      Ryan Mallet (worth a potential second/third round pick) and our no. 29 and our third rounder for the browns no.6 overall and a 4th/5th round pick or something

      The same for the bucs but because they are no.13 it might be a little different

      We would have a high no.1 (we could get cordarelle patterson dee milliner and maybe dion jordan if he falls or shariff floyd) and a still have our second and we could trade that and maybe a pick from next year and get a couple picks

  6. AM says:

    The advantage of the trade with the Jaguars, in theory, is that it situates the Patriots at the top of the second round on Day 2. That means they could theoretically trade down again to any team looking to move up, and could toss in late round picks (their own or the Jaguars’s) in order to get more mid-rounders in exchange.

    • PatsDJ says:

      I would make the trade with jags, but I would want picks #33 & #98. That way the Pats have the first pick on day 2 & 3. Then let BB wheel and deal. I want picks for next year, and to move back in this draft. There will be some very good prospects, end of the 2nd to middle of the 3rd in this draft. The Pats would be a plus 48 points in the Jags trade, on the draft value chart.

      • cc says:

        Sounds like a good strategy to have the 1st in each of the next two rounds, Belichik would love those two.
        *Teams are gonna finish Eating-Up D-Backs Quick on Ol’ BB the second he trades that 1st rounder!

  7. Russell Easterbrooks says:

    Very interesting trade Opitions ! I still like a deal with Tampa as they may want to jump all the QB hungry teams in the early 2nd round to get there man. Here’s what I think;

    Patriots #29, #91 to Tampa for #43, #73, #112 and #181 By trading 3d round picks the Patriots move-up 18 picks in the 3d round about 87 pts in value.
    The Patriots end up with #43, #59, #73 #112, #181 and two 7th’s
    For Tampa they Keep #13 get #29 moving up by 15 picks from the loss of thier 2nd round pick, move back in the 3d, 18 picks to#91 and loose a 4th Keep #126, and #147 loosing #181. Draft value Patriots loss 640, pts. Tampa loss 646 pts.

    • acm says:

      Russ, please tell me you aren’t looking at that SVC thing, as well. 🙂

      Considering Tampa’s likely need for a new QB, something the SVC cannot put a points value on, I think their moving 14 spots to 29, could well cost them their 43 and 73 just for the 29th pick.

      So, with next draft in mind, I’d think, or at least hope, BB would look for at least a 4th rounder next year – 29+91 for 43+73+112+4th next year.

      If I am Schiano, I’d just trade my 43 and a 3rd/4th next year for Mallet and be done with it – it’s not like he can get a better, or even as good, QB in the draft at 29 anyway and would likely lose even more in trading up for that pick anyway.

  8. acm says:

    interesting ideas for possible trades. I would expect trading down to very early 2nd round, however, to involve future draft picks too – as a future 3rd/4th pick instead of that 169th in the ags trade, for example.

    Trades like that are usually done with a QB in mind and gives leverage in the deal to the other team, so I fully expect BB to look to increase his picks in the 2014 draft … also because trading down to early 2nd allows the Pats to trade down again and still stay in the top half of the round and acquire those extra picks they need this year.

    Trading down progressively, in say 2 trades, would bring better value as opposed to moving down to mid 2nd in a single trade.

    I’d also look at the 49ers as a possible trading partner this year – they’d probably be looking for a SAF, TE and likely DL in latish 1st. So, I’d expect them to try to use the galore of later round picks they have in trying to move both their 31st and 34th up a bit.

  9. Trev says:

    I like the Philly & Jax scenarios, but any of them would be good.

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