Three-Round Post-Combine Projection

Rutgers cornerback Logan Ryan is one of the players who improved their draft stock at the NFL Combine. (Photo: US Presswire)

NEPD Editor: Matthew Jones

At this NFL Combine this week, Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei was sent home with a heart condition, while Georgia linebacker Jarvis Jones reportedly had some trouble with the medical portion of the event as well. Rumors of an impending trade involving Alex Smith emerged, and highly-touted Texas A&M pass rusher Damontre Moore may have lost draft positioning with disappointing performances. Read on for a three-round projection which attempts to decipher the Combine’s impact on this April’s 2013 NFL Draft.


1. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M*

With rumors swirling that the Chiefs could be nearing a deal for Alex Smith, Joeckel becomes the most logical projection here.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida*

A player such as Floyd could help improve the talent level along Jacksonville’s defensive line, a team weakness during the 2012 season.

3. Oakland Raiders – CB Dee Milliner, Alabama*

Michael Huff was forced into cornerback duty last season because of Oakland’s overall lack of talent on the defensive boundary.

4. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Dion Jordan, Oregon

Eric Fisher and Dion Jordan provide two options for Philadelphia, with Jordan getting a slight edge because of his relationship with Chip Kelly.

5. Detroit Lions – DE Bjoern Werner, Florida St.*

Werner is perfect for Detroit’s wide-nine pass rushing scheme; the Lions need to replace either one or two of their defensive ends.

6. Cleveland Browns – DE Barkevious Mingo, Louisiana St.*

Mingo’s stock is among the most difficult to project in the entire draft; at this point, he appears to be a good value for Cleveland at number six.

7. Arizona Cardinals – OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan

Fisher’s ability to protect a quarterback’s blind side should appeal to an Arizona team which has been unable to do so for years.

8. Buffalo Bills – WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee*

Patterson to Buffalo continues to gain steam, as his talent would provide Buffalo with a dangerous complement to Stevie Johnson.

9. New York Jets – LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia*

It’s unclear how spinal stenosis will affect Jones in the draft, but his ability to create pressure should appeal to general manager John Idzik.

10. Tennessee Titans – OG Chance Warmack, Alabama

The gap between Warmack and Jonathan Cooper isn’t as large as perceived; however, Warmack is the better fit for Tennessee’s power scheme.

11. San Diego Chargers – OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma

Johnson’s outstanding Combine workout cemented his status as a high first-round pick; he could replace much-maligned left tackle Jared Gaither.

12. Miami Dolphins – DE Ezekiel Ansah, Brigham Young

With Randy Starks set to hit free agency, Miami could draft a pass rusher like Ansah to man the left end spot, allowing Jared Odrick to play tackle.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Star Lotulelei, Utah

Lotulelei’s health concern could prove disastrous to his draft stock, but it would be very difficult for Tampa Bay to pass on him here.

14. Carolina Panthers – DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri*

Richardson may not be the run stuffer Carolina needs; nonetheless, his contributions as a pass rusher more than make up for any other deficiencies.

15. New Orleans Saints – DE Damontre Moore, Texas A&M*

The Saints need to upgrade their pass rush; Moore works, even if his stock took a hit following a weak Combine performance.

16. St. Louis Rams – WR Keenan Allen, California*

Allen could provide the Rams with the true number one receiver they have lacked for years; his stock could rebound with a quality pro day.

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34 Responses to “Three-Round Post-Combine Projection”

  1. Frank 210 says:

    We need to trade our first rounder for more picks this draft is way to deep to only have 3 picks In the top 100 of the draft and bb needs to trade mallet and stop the bs

  2. bmp1113 says:

    1st- patton/hopkins/ star definitely if he slides very far
    2nd swearinger/cyprien/elam
    3rd Stedman Bailey

  3. Russell Easterbrooks says:

    My bet right now is BB trading our #29, to Tampa for thier 2nd,#43, 4th,#109, and Patriots old 4th,#123. This is fair value for our 1st pick, and allows Tampa to move up, 14 picks in the draft. Tampa wants a DT and a CB, to start on thier D, so this allows them to get just that.
    Because BB likes the mid-part of the draft, the best, this sounds like BB.

    #43- DT Brandon Williams
    #59- CB Robert Alford
    #91- LB DaVonte Holloman
    #109- WR Mark Harrison
    #123- SS Cooper Taylor
    7th- OG/C T.J.Johnson
    7th- Keith McGill

    • Russell Easterbrooks says:

      If we stay with the picks we have;
      #29- OG/C Barrett Jones
      #59- DT Brandon Williams
      #91-WR Aaron Dobson
      7th- CB Keith McGill
      7th- CB Demetrius McCray

    • steve earle says:

      Russell, do you see Mark Harrison and Cooper Tayler as differance makers or roll players? Can’t say I know much about them.

      • Russell Easterbrooks says:

        I think Harrison and Cooper are Differance makers , and are undervalued in this draft. I would like to get WR Wheaton or WR Hopkins, But just don’t see how with out a trade of some kind. I feel Brandon Williams is a target player by BB.
        No-way we pass on Barrett Jones if he’s on the board, WHERE ever our 1st pick is !!!

        • steve earle says:

          What I see and read about Brandon Williams is all good. I hope Bill does target him. love Barret Jones but think he’s a luxurie as of now. Where Wheaton ran just over the 4.4 and 10 ran under chances ar fair to good he may be there at 59. Good to very good if we get a mid 2nd. Love to get him and fills a need too. I’m still holding out hope Rhodes will be around at 29. Twice he ran 4.41’s. probably raises his stock.

    • steve earle says:

      I would be surprised if Bill is making such a trade at this time. He may be exploring possabilitys but I wouldn’t expect him to pull any triggers for #29 until draft day. Being as smart as he usually is he would want to keep his options open just as long as he can. Never can tell if a top ten prospect guy might slide down to us however unlikely.

  4. Joe Blake says:

    Post combine, Pre FA: draft:#29 CB (Rhodes,Trufant,Taylor,Ryan ). A cover corner with some size. #59 DT (Short, Williams (best of the remaining 3), Hankins, Jenkins, Hunt); someone to push the pocket thus helping secondary and Vince. #91 WR (Swope, Stills, Dobson, Wheaton, Taylor) someone to stretch the field, a sub 4.5 guy with agility. 7th rounders: another CB: Honey Badger or Ray Ray A. Someone with talent who slipped. With second 7th an OL for Dante to coach up. Having said this: BB will probably draft a TE, OT and SS!

    • steve earle says:

      Don’t be a pessimist Joe your on the right track. Rhodes/Trufant/ db @29 Wheaton/Dobson/ wr @59 then Hunt/ Carradine/ B.Williams/dl @91. A couple low risk, high reward types with the 7s. Top 3 rounds look like the money rounds to me. Mix and match as you like but get players who can make plays is key.

      • Joe Blake says:

        Couldn’t agree more. Things would change post FA and (hopefully for both parties) a Mallett trade. BB is unpredictable though.

  5. steve earle says:

    In the past 48 hours or so, things have changed markedly. Cap space has nearly doubled and events at the combine have shaken things up as usual. I haven’t reset my board as yet but I believe my previous selections are not far off still. I’m not really excited about some trade down to get extra mid and low round picks. My short list for 29 still include Rhodes and Trufant at it’s top. Plus I’d like a DT in the top 3 picks also. A fast wr for outside would be gravy. Let’s see how things start shaping up now.

  6. Larry says:

    No way the Pats are taking Def Linemen with their first two picks……….

  7. Hunter says:

    I would be very unhappy with this draft. There are a TON of players going day two in your draft that I would rather have than a DE with potential coming off an ACL injury. I personally would like to see either Banks, Rhodes, Trufant or Poyer in Rnd 1. I like the idea of Hunt in the 2nd/3rd round as well.

    Side note, what do you guys think of TJ Moe? He ran a terrible 40 at the combine, but excelled in every other event. I just heard an interview with him on NFL radio, it’s hard not to like the guy. He seems like a perfect player to groom in the slot, and if he doesn’t improve his time I’d think the Pats could get him in the 7th. If BB does the wheeling and dealing we think he will, they could definitely get him in the 5th or 6th. Maybe he can be the player we hoped Ebert would be.

    • AM says:

      I believe that Moe was the (or a) top performer in the 3-cone drill, which I know the Patriots value as a quickness metric. It wouldn’t surprise me if they took a shot on him in the 7th or as a UDFA. But he still strikes me as a developmental type, given that Edelman is waiting in the wings, and a superior player when healthy.

    • J H TARBORO says:

      TJ MOE is a thumper, never mind his 40, a late rounder who could be tone setter!

  8. Russell Easterbrooks says:

    Great Mock Matthew, well thought out ! I’m still adjusting my picks, but based on this Mock;

    #29- OG/C Barrett Jones
    #59- DT Brandon Williams
    #91- SS Cooper Taylor
    7th- CB Keith McGills
    7th-CB Demetrius McCray

    Knowing, BB will most likely make some moves, to get differant picks, we can add a WR lateand or a cover LBer.

    • AM says:

      Given the depth of this WR class, I think it would be disappointing if we didn’t come away with at least one quality player, if not two, regardless of Welker’s status. Personally, I say load up at the position, like tight end in 2010 and running back in 2011. Based on this mock, I’d like to see this:

      #29 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR
      #59 – Jordan Poyer, CB
      #91 – Aaron Dobson, WR

      I don’t think there will be a ton of great trade opportunities given the value sweet spot in this draft (late first through the second), but if Arizona falls in love with one of the QB prospects, we might swing a second, fourth, and late rounder for our first. If so, I would stick with the picks above, and see if D.J. Swearinger manages to fall to the top of the fourth round.

      • patsfan says:

        This is my favorite so far. I have been thinking recently that now is the time to double dip on WRs. Get a slot guy and an outside guy and start grooming them. We also need more picks in the top 4 rounds. I would hate to miss out on the DT and OT depth in this draft just because we blew all our picks.

        • AM says:

          Agreed on more picks–it’s just bad luck that the draft with the best depth in years coincides with a) a shortage of picks, and b) a middling QB class that won’t inspire much wheeling and dealing.

          The good news is that the depth means that even if only mid-round picks are acquired, there should be great players available, and some very good OL help in the late rounds. Also, it should be a quality free agent class, so plenty of spots can be addressed there.

        • J H TARBORO says:

          We should double dip on WRs, we need to trade the 1st pick for mutiple mid round picks. Based on trade value a 3,4,5 for picks and 2or3 for Mallett, Michael Lombardi Clevelands’ GM still likes Mallett, and based on the Brady deal it might already be done, it’s ironic that the news of the Brady deal came on 2nd day of the combine. With these number of picks we can pick up a little of everything or wheel and deal for what we want. The depth of draft is insane and with 5 picks, you feel like we’ve been screwed. BB put on your blackjack hat!!!

      • steve earle says:

        As much as I like Carradine I’m still looking for def back help. It has been our def that has been the problem in the playoffs and SB’s the past few years. Fans with short memories keep clamoring for wr’s but unless the other offense gets off the field wr’s are just spectators. Getting A second and 4th in a trade for #29 is of questionable value. Two 2nds is fine but getting an impact player with a 4th is far less likely so we still likely net only 2, possably three, guys that will help. As for 6th or 7th rds unless your willing to take chances on players with off field historys we’re usually just as well off looking at undrafted guys. It’s not the number of picks that matter at this stage for our Pats, it’s the quality.

  9. Ricky says:

    By Christopher Carradine, do you mean Tank Carradine?

  10. AM says:

    I’m beginning to wonder if the Patriots will opt for Margus Hunt–he’s quite raw, and a physical specimen, a la Chandler Jones. I can see them taking him with an eye towards developing him as a DE/DT swing player.

    • I agree, they could shoot for Hunt in the later rounds, but the only way is in the 3rd round, which may be a reach. In the third they could get a speedy WR like Denard Robinson. What do you think?

      • J H TARBORO says:

        I really like Denard Robinson QB/WR/KR he is extremely versatile, we can a use guy like this aka SLASH. We could use his strengths in the right way to create some packages, misdirection plays etc. and remember he is a Michigan QB like our Brady.

        • steve earle says:

          Robinson must be considered a developmental prospect. Exactly how versatile he may be is impossable for anyone to say for sure. We do know he has great speed, decent size and was very productive. The rest is projection. We do not know if he will be a good receiver, return man, or rb. Be carefull your not falling for a workout wonder. Me, I just don’t know, and with so few picks can we afford to take the chance?

        • J H TARBORO says:

          Steve E. I could see your point but as you know in the past we’ve done with less talent and made it work. The Patriots must think about the future when we draft, and player development .

        • steve earle says:

          J H, I am thinking about the future because with only 5 picks currently, 2 in 7th, we can ill afford to make a mistake that would snowball into 2014. I give you Res I Downing for example. Injury history going back to high school. Drafting him high a couple years ago has helped create our problems now. Bill was forced to trade a 4th for Talib last season because of such mistakes. Now if such a mistake occures this year at wr can it be fixed going down the stretch and how might it effect our choices next draft. Robinson might turn out to be a hall of famer some day but he also could be another bust. At this point it’s a crap shoot.

        • AM says:

          Robinson just hasn’t shown the hands you would want from a WR, unless taking a flyer on him in the seventh. This class is insanely deep at wideout, so there are plenty of other, more polished options.

          The versatility is a nice feature, but it isn’t quite the same thing as having (for example) a CB/S combo. Wildcat packages and the like are really only good options for teams who lack top-tier QBs; taking Brady off the field for a play hinders the offense, regardless of who takes his place.

          If Demps ends up quitting football for track permanently, however, he might be worth going after as a KR alone.

        • steve earle says:

          As usual AM sees the picture quite clearly. A flyer on Robinson in late rounds is perfectly fine but being a productive running QB in collage has no bearing of playing any other position in the NFL, not even RB.

    • steve earle says:

      Hunt has a high upside and if he were our 1st pick I wouldn’t have a problem with that as long as we got some cb/s help after that.

      • AM says:

        He’s a really tough evaluation–you never want to get oversold on the workout warriors, but he has (literally) huge potential, and apparently a sterling work ethic. I’ve got a hunch he’ll be a steal for whoever gets him, but I have no idea where he will go; could be top-10, could be bottom of the top-100.

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