Open Thread: Patriots Nightmare Pick

Doug Martin 2012 NFL Draft

Would a running back like Doug Martin be your nightmare pick for the Patriots? (Photo: ICON SMI)

NEPD Editor: James Christensen

It is 11pm eastern on April 26th, the first night of the 2012 NFL Draft. Roger Goodell approaches the podium. “With the 27th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots select…”

Your friends and family barely have time to react to the pick before the sound of your shoe crushing the now black screen of your dying television.

Your eyes flicker open and you realize it was all just a nightmare.

What prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft would cause such a reaction for you?

According to NEPD writer Mike Loyko, his nightmare pick would be “…any offensive lineman. Any pick other than a defender in the first round is ignorant. They picked Solder in the first round last year and have three or four Pro Bowl caliber offensive lineman on the roster with some young players in ths mix. The defense has such obvious holes that spending a first round pick on OL would be a nightmare.”

Doug Kyed chose Syracuse DE/OLB Chandler Jones. ” I’ve seen Jones mocked a few times to the Patriots, and I don’t see a fit. Jones doesn’t have the flexibility or drop back ability to play OLB and he doesn’t have the size or growth potential to eventually play 5-tech without a lot of work. Jones plays very upright, and every movement he makes seems forced. The technique issues could be fixed, but I can’t see his change of direction or lateral quickness being fixed to the point that he could stand up in the Patriots system. If he were drafted, he would be purely a rotational third down 7-tech.

My nightmare pick would be Rueben Randle. I’m not sure he can run the precise routes necessary to build trust and rapport with Tom Brady. He has all the physical tools, but then so did Chad Jackson.

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60 Responses to “Open Thread: Patriots Nightmare Pick”

  1. Liam says:

    MUST GO DEFENCE!!! Surely that’s the plan, with all the offensive players in FA.

    My dream draft:

    27. Nick Perry DE/OLB
    31. Devon Still/Kendall Reyes DE/DT
    48. Harrison Smith S
    62. Josh Robinson CB
    93. Trade for 2013 3rd & 4th
    126. Mike Brewster C

  2. AFL says:

    There’s no way Barron will be available. Nightmare would be once again trading down & missing out on a quality d lineman. Having a healthy Carter & Anderson last year allowed us to hang in there & win some games with the worst set of DB’s in the league(when Chung was injured) & I say DE/OLB is a priority right now. Personally I really like the free agents signings at WR, veteran players who really fit the system, but pick a WR with speed to stretch the field. Then Harrison Smith in Round 2. I agree that BB gets too “cute” with the draft sometimes & those later round gambles do not always pay off. Last year the TV was in serious jeopardy when he passed on Brooks Reed.

  3. Bruschi54 says:

    I agree that drafting Jones or Randle in RD 1 would be nightmare, Kiper projecting Wolfe to Pats early is ridiculous. Wolfe has chance to be a good player but will probably come off the board in round 3. The biggest nightmare in this draft for me would be Pats moving up in RD1 to select Brockers from LSU. I know that a lot of people are very high on him, but I just don’t see it and think that he has tremendous chance to be a bust. Other LSU DLineman have been much more productive college players and been disappointments in the NFL. Would hate to see us package 27 or 31 with 48 to move up for that.

  4. Ken W says:

    Nightmare picks:
    1. Chandler Jones
    2. Any RB in the 1st
    3. Mohamed Sanu
    4. Cam Johnson
    5. Vontaze Burfict
    6. Any QB
    7. Andre Branch

    Dream List: (I know they couldn’t get them all but a few would be great)
    1. Fletcher Cox DE
    2. Courtney Upshaw OLB
    3. Devon Still DE
    4. Dont’a Hightower OLB
    5. Mark Barron S
    6. Peter Konz C
    7. Jared Crick DE
    8. Jayron Hosley CB
    9. Shea McClellin OLB
    10. Joe Adams WR
    11. George Iloka S
    12. Ronnell Lewis OLB
    13. Harrison Smith S
    14. Marvin Jones WR

    Dream Draft:
    1. Devon Still DE
    1. Trade (2012 early 2nd and 2013 1st)
    2. Shea McClellin OLB
    2. Jared Crick DE (Trade Brian Hoyer and a 4th for a 2nd)
    2. Jayron Hosley CB
    2. George Iloka S
    3. Marvin Jones WR

    I know it would never happen but I can hope.

    • Dan says:

      That was pretty good…

    • AM says:

      Except for Still, that would be an outstanding draft. Still is one of my nightmare picks, given his motor issues. I’m thinking he’s Dewayne Robertson all over again.

      On the flip side, I love Sanu, but in the 2nd round. I’d also be fine with Johnson, but not until the 3rd. Other than that, I’m with you on the nightmare list (jury’s out on Branch at best).

    • Big Dan From Maine says:

      I’m not bid on Devon Still. I live in big ten country not the east coast and he never really stood out in any of the games i watched him play. I think he is a bust player. Much better DTs in the draft besides him.

  5. Jack says:

    It’s Hill.

  6. Jeff M says:

    If the Pat’s pulled a Kiper and took Derek Wolfe in the 1st round…I think I’d kill myself.

    There aren’t too many players in the draft that I’d want to do that, and I even like Wolfe, but he’s a 4th round guy to me.

    Anyone who has a 1st round grade is fine, but a guy that’s a massive reach in the 1st…that’s make me scream.

    The only 1st round running back is Richardson in my book so yeah…unless he’s there at 27 I’d scream at a RB.

    The only guy I wanted NO PART of in the 1st round last year was the OG out of Baylor…I would’ve broken my TV if they drafted him.

    • Mark says:

      Is it just me or does Mel Kiper just seem to suck as a draft expert?

      • Ryan says:

        Not just you. Most of the nation could do a better job than him. I doubt he even does his won research any more.

  7. Tom says:

    My nightmare pick: ANYTHING on offense. If they can get impact from the first two picks (although we all know they are using one and trading the other) on the defensive side of the ball, I’m happy.

    Wouldn’t suprise me if they double-up on a position fairly early, like they did last year with RB’s and the year before with TE’s.

    My dream: Reyes, McLellin, CB, Harrison, Broyles

    • qwerty says:

      If the best available player is on offense, that is what the first pick will be.

      the patriots grade the players and whoever is at the top of the list and not taken yet, usually gets chosen. need is probably part of the grade.

      when your picking very late first round, targeting a player or position can be counter productive.

      • Dan says:

        I think the cliche “best available player” has some truth to it, but I think it’s more of something a team says to the media after they made a selection. What else are they going to say, “we wanted someone else and settled on this kid”? What good would that do?
        So, they say, “we always take the best available player from our board”.
        It’s a lie…a stretch of the truth, or whatever…
        Fact is they have a board and they have players that I would guess are very close in grade, and they most likely take the player that is filling a need more than the others. Then they say, “he was the best….blah, blah, blah”.
        For example, if the best available player on their board at #27 was Tannehil, and he was there, and nobody wanted to trade with them so they had to turn in a pick, would they draft him? No! They would go laterally on their board and take the player next who fills a need.
        If drafting was that rigid, and teams only took “best available player…” they could conceivably have a roster filled with 13 guards, or whatever. You get the point?

        It’s an involved and complex decision, most likely done on a whim or hunch at times, and while a clock is running and trades are being discussed.

        • qwerty says:

          I don’t think we disagree that much.

          I think the grading system does take what you say into account even the hunch and whim. By draft day, all the thinking has been done and there is a number and letter qualifiers attached to a player.

          I think the thing that will cause a discussion is if a player drops unexpectedly but not high need or trading for slot involved. So if Kalil or Luck drops to Patriots, do you take them.

  8. qwerty says:

    A nightmare pick would be a Long Snapper.

    • Jim R says:

      LMFAO, that was good

    • Big Dan From Maine says:

      Long snappers, kickers and punters. Zolton Mesko is an OK punter, but does anyone really believe that he wouldn’t have been around later than the 5th round

  9. Big Dan From Maine says:

    My nightmare pick would be wide reciever first, OL second Running Back third.

    I strongly believe that we need pass rushers and defensive backs. Trading out of the picks for next years 1st roundser would also be a nightmare. Lets get our talent base up now.

  10. Joe Blake says:

    somebody from the Naval Academy would be a nightmare pick…even if they had a 7th rounder!

    • Dan says:

      forgot about that…good one!

      I also don’t like it when he puts too much into one school…one program…one coach. It seems lesson the entire scouting process if you put so much weight into a few programs. Venture out and pick from the entire field. At least that’s a perspection he gives off.

      • AM says:

        In “War Room,” Michael Holley wrote that the Patriots’ scouts were especially irritated because Belichick favored “inside information” over scouting when it came to selecting Maroney and Chad Jackson. A dispassionate eye definitely seems like the best bet in this game.

        • Dan says:

          Yes, aside from liking Jon Bon Jovi’s music I don’t like the fact that he gets “cute” with the drafting tihng. I wish he would tighten this up just a bit…venture out…listen to his scouts, or whoever. If that is the case.
          All that being said, I can’t complain about BB…he’s as good as there ever was, and the results are there.

  11. Dan says:

    Reasons why this year could be the year they take an OLB:

    – rookie salary cap, and both picks are end the round
    – having two picks in the 1st
    – having a mid-second
    – last years passing league gone crazy making pass rush that much more important.
    – seeing the success that Anderson had as a pass rush specialist
    – player projected to be there, like Branch, McClellin, Mercilus (to name a few) being decent value…possibly Upshaw (very interesting scenario)
    – Many other needs filled, and with depth on the current roster
    – Players projected to be there matching desired measurables
    – Cunningham’s apparent failure showing why waiting for the 2nd round is risky also

    – I want to say media/fan pressure, but I know he doesn’t
    give a #%^!!!

    • Mark says:

      Brockers, McClellin, and Reyes for our first three – a nice dream

    • Jeff M says:

      I think they will take an OLB for sure…but not in the 1st round.

      McClellin looks like the guy to me who would fit well, but I wouldn’t take him before the 48th pick unless they can trade up a little bit.

      • Jim R says:

        McClellin might not last to 48.

        • AM says:

          Agreed. He’s far and away the most “Patriot-like” player in this draft, and he fills a huge need. I’d be perfectly fine if they took him at 27 at this point, given how his stock is rising.

  12. Dan says:

    There’s something I love about Randle, and I’ve been clearn on my top pick being Barron. I think Randle is a bit raw, but I think he could be special and I love Barron’s game, and feel he could play deep in our system…adding much needed instincts, range and skill to this defense…filling a huge hole.

    My nightmare 1st round picks would be CB Dennard, RB Wilson, WR Jeffrey, and maybe WR Hill.

    Any other players they take will be fine with me…they have much more info on these guys than I do, obviously. So, I’ll know wait and see how they work out…knowing it’s a % game on whether a player will work out…hits & misses.

  13. Asap says:

    If we traded out of both picks! With BB its possible.

    • Jeff M says:

      Your nightmare pick is very plausible…if I were you I wouldn’t watch the draft.

      Honestly I wouldn’t be too upset about that if they got future 1sts and 2nds this year.

      #27 = 2012 2nd, 2013 1st
      #31 = 2012 2nd, 2012 7th, 2014 1st

      In the 2nd they could get:

      Jared Crick/Kendall Reyes
      Shea McClellin/Andre Branch
      Jaron Hosley/Chase Minnifield/Josh Robinson
      Brian Quick/Marvin McNutt

      That’d be a pretty nice haul in the 2nd round and still allow for them to push value into the future.

  14. Jim says:

    My nightmare pick: at 27, there’s a great OLB who has shown he can put a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. Websites that follow the Patriots have raved about this guy, and how he would be a great pick for the Patriots. However, because he’s not a 4 down player, Bill Belichik won’t draft him, and instead trades down (for value) because another team offers him a handful of later round picks. The other team drafts the OLB/pass rusher, and we have to hear that person’s name being selected to pro-bowls in the years to come.

    I wish BB would take a chance, and draft a Clay Matthews, a Connor Barwin, or a Brooks Reed with 27, 31, or 48 instead of trading for picks. Not every late round pick will be an Elvis Dumervil, a Tom Brady, or a Shannon Sharpe.

  15. Jim R says:

    Mark Barron That would suk.

    • Dan says:

      I am baffled by the Barron haters…don’t get it. This guy looks like a serious player, from a winning/pro-style team, national champs, very tough coach etc…Highly productiove safety…
      Every expert in the country, on every network, on every site, is saying this guy is a top 20 pick, if not higher, and that’s with the injuries.
      We are desparate for defensive back/defensive help…particularly at safety; and I realize free safety is the key, but I believe he can easily, or greatly, better our free safety position. He just wasn’t asked to last year, but that doesn’t mean he can’t do it…making a few changes.

      I’ve watched him play and keep going back and I’m so puzzled by those that don’t like his game. I know he’s not Ed Reed or Eric Berry….this isn’t a perfect world…those guys come around once a decade, at best; but, he’s a HUGE upgrade over what we have now, and had last year, and he’s better than Chung, and I like Chung a lot…big fan.

      • Dan says:

        The likely reality is he won’t even get to us, and he may very well go so high that we won’t entertain moving up to that point because it will simply cost too much. So, we’ll probably never know.
        We have to hope other teams just don’t see the need…have one pick and are too desperate to grab someone sexy or at a higher position value etc…whatever.
        If he falls to 20, or so, I think we should move up to grab him; then trade back with the 31st pick and regain what we lost. Draft a defensive tackle with our next pick, or LB like Branch if there…

      • AM says:

        I think it is less that we (or rather, I) don’t see him as a good player, but rather three other aspects. First, I just don’t think he is the best fit. If there is one thing we’ve seen from excursions into draft and free agency, it’s that good players who don’t fit the team’s system are often less valuable than average ones who do. To the extent that Barron fits the team, he doesn’t seem to truly fill a need at safety. (And also, I admit to being a little concerned about the medical stuff, although apparently double hernia surgery isn’t really a long-term concern.)

        Now, the Patriots were way below average at safety last year, so you’re absolutely right that *any* quality talent would improve the team, and Barron is certainly quality talent. But the second aspect is an evaluation of how much better he would be, indexing his talent to his fit, than another player at the position. Personally, I love Harrison Smith at safety–he was another nominally strong safety in college who could make the switch to more of a quasi-free safety in the Patriot system. The difference is that I think while he might be less talented athletically than Barron, he has greater potential in the Patriot system.

        Of course, the other advantage in choosing Smith over Barron is that he can be had at 48 or maybe even 62, whereas Barron would have to slide a bit to even make it to 27–which leads to the third point, and one on which most fans would probably disagree with me. As bad as the Patriots secondary was last year, and as much as they need a talent upgrade at safety, I believe that their almost complete inability to generate a four-man pass rush was the biggest culprit in their poor performance, not the weakness in the secondary. To me, the first pick or two in the draft should be used to bolster the front seven, with a dynamic defensive end (e.g., Kendall Reyes), aggressive OLB (e.g., Shea McClellin), or a hybrid 3-4/4-3 player (e.g., Whitney Mercilus). Smith, or even Markelle Martin (whom I don’t particularly like, but could live with) can be had much later than Barron. Alternately, the draft is very deep at corner, including a number who could make an easy switch to playing safety if needs be.

        Just my two cents.

      • Jim R says:

        My issue is I think the pats at 27 or 31 would be better off getting front 7 help. Free safety is a need, I think if you get the help you need up front this becomes less of an issue.
        I also Think if they draft a corner Gillmore/Jenkins or if Kirpatrick falls, that gives them a lot more flexability in thier rotation. If you draft a safety chances are pretty good that his coverage skills will be exposed.

        • Big Dan From Maine says:

          I would rather see the Pats go after a big corner and have him move to free safety. Corners naturally have better cover skills and there are several good corners in this draft. I really think Guys like Trumain Johnson 2nd round, Jamell Flemming 2nd round, or a George Iloka in the third, would be a much better value and potentially better players against multi wide reciever sets.

  16. MJP says:

    Gotta second the motion on Chandler Jones, I’m glad someone described his shortcomings so well because I’ve been questioning his talent after taking a closer look some time ago but haven’t been able to describe it to others with such accuracy.

    I also agree with the OL, they could use depth and there has to be a RT with some upside after round-1.

    Can we just say any Offensive player would be a nightmare, with Lloyd in the mix at WR there’s no reason we can’t focus on Defense, Defense, Defense.

    • AM says:

      Maybe not any offensive player–if there is a chance DeCastro drops to #27, he’d be well worth the pick. It would give us an eventual offensive line of Solder, Mankins, Connolly/Center-to-be-named-later, DeCastro, Vollmer/Cannon. Great group. But other than that, or maybe Kendall Wright, I agree.

  17. AM says:

    1. Stephen Hill, WR. The last thing the Patriots need is another Brandon Tate/Chad Jackson style receiver, and Hill seems the type.

    2. Devon Still, DT. Impressive physically, and accordingly will probably be gone before the Patriots pick. That would be a good thing–the inconsistent motor, injury history, and spotty production makes him too big a risk.

    3. Janoris Jenkins, CB. Very talented, but too many off the field concerns to risk the pick.

    4. Mark Barron, S. This isn’t really anything against Barron–he could very well be a quality safety in the league. The problem is that he duplicates Pat Chung’s skill set, and really doesn’t have the range to play along side. The Patriots may not completely fall into traditional SS/FS roles with their safeties, but they would be better off with Harrison Smith or another highly instinctive, mobile safety.

    • Jim R says:

      Agree with the assesment on Barron. I would rather see them draft a corner and move either McCorty or Dowling (If healthy) to Free Safety.

    • JimC says:

      You guys are wrong about Barron. He’s a quality free safety who plays the position correctly and is never out of position. The Pat’s would be lucky to get him at 27th. He won’t be making many interceptions cause the QB’s won’t be throwing his way much.

      • Jim R says:

        JimC, I hope you are right. If they do pick him I would love to be wrong

        • Cef says:

          If Barron falls that far we would be stupid not to pick him up but the chances of that happening is pretty slim. I would like to draft DL first then OLB with our 2nd first rounder.

  18. Mark says:

    Positionally? More tightends. BBs secret new offense will be 10 tightends and Brady. They can randomly all block, run or receive. The funny thing is, the top three tightends will all have value at each of the PATS 1st three picks…

    Personallitywise – Henry Owens Johnson – a fictional character made from the last names of three of the most self-centered players I can think of. That attitude is so poisonous it can kill – fan enjoyment, team morale, a career and even individuals themselves. So – anyone like that.

    Actual Draft Participant but must also be a realistic first rounder?
    (otherwise I’d just say V. Burrefict)
    A. Jeffery – He’s a large possesion reciever yes? Keyshawn Johnsonesque? I see no need with Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, and probably Vareen and some fullbacks clogging the short routes. I’d rather straitghtline speed or agility and quickness. – Nothing against A.J. – I just don’t see the fit.

    Also – a small question – Do you gentlemen do this full time? If so…good job landing a dream job.

  19. Whizzkydd says:

    I agree needs to be a defensive player, OLB/DE type that can play all the hybrid and standard defensive schemes we run. I would not mind with the other first round a WR like Steven Hill picked up to start getting younger at WR some one that can groom into the line up. He has the height and speed to give fits down field and jump balls in the end zone. Also since they ran the spread at GT which from what I understand he’s a great blocker in the run and passing sets. Which would open up the possibilities of more screen plays and longer yards in the running game. I also like the pick of a safety like Barron from Alabama too. He sures up the running game a bit and tackles well in coverage. Also good in the blitz and up in the box as well. Something BB likes in a safety, but I haven’t read up much more than that on him. What u think?

    • Big Dan From Maine says:

      Now with Bobby Carpenter being signed I would be willing to bet the Pats don use a high pick on an outside linebacker/DE. More linebacker by committee, comming up instead of having actual stud outside rushers.

  20. Jeff says:

    taking a TE..WR..RB..ILB..would not make happy!

    • BILL says:

      A RB in the 2nd round wouldn’t surprise me. After all the WR on the roster, there isn’t much need to draft one, and a RB would be very interesting.

      • Jeff says:

        I would agree that a RB would not be a bad idea except for the fact I dont see McDaniels running the ball all that much. Balance is not his thing…did you watch the SB?

    • DWE 2012 says:

      Agreed. Any of these would be a waste.

    • qwerty says:

      the Patriot WR are getting OLD. they need to get some younger blood in WR group. This draft is rich in WR talent. Ideal round would be second

      • Big Dan From Maine says:

        Please please please do not let the Pats draft a WR anywhere in this draft. they havent been able to get it right in 10 years

        • Dan says:

          you can’t stop trying just because you’ve got it wrong…it’s a very important position; especially in this league now…with all the passing.
          Maybe rethink who is making the calls on these picks, or the evaluation process, or draft one higher with less risk???

        • AM says:

          Agree with Dan above. I think that the biggest change in strategy–pointed out by the people who write for this site a while back–is that they need to start focusing on college production instead of raw speed and workouts. The former strategy got them Deion Branch. The latter strategy got them Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, and Chad Jackson. It’s why I would love to see them draft Mohammad Sanu, 40 times be damned.

  21. td says:

    No, any QB would do the trick.

    • Mark says:

      Hey if Luck is there at 31 I say take him…which leads to another question:
      Did they re-instate the ability to draft a player then trade him? I know they removed it from last years draft…

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