2012 NFL Draft: Value Draft Grades

17. San Diego Chargers
18. Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
49. Kendall Reyes, DE/DT, Connecticut
73. Brandon Taylor, S, LSU
110. Ladarius Green, TE, Lousiana-Lafayette
149. Johnnie Troutman, G, Penn State
226. David Molk, C, Michigan
250. Edwin Baker, RB, Michigan State
Ranked UDFA: Christian Tupou (198)
Total Score: 94

I loved the Reyes, Green and Molk picks. Troutman I thought was a reach.

18. Oakland Raiders
95. Tony Bergstrom, OT/G, Utah
129. Miles Burris, DE/OLB, San Diego State
158. Jack Crawford, DE, Penn State
168. Juron Criner, WR, Arizona
189. Christo Bulukidi, DT, Georgia State
230. Nathan Stupar, LB, Penn State
Ranked UDFA: Lucas Nix (132), Aaron Henry (197), Dominique Hamilton (221), Adrian Hamilton (244)
Total Score: 85

The Raiders did a very nice job in UDFA despite having few top picks in the draft. Lucas Nix could be a future starter despite going undrafted.

19. St. Louis Rams
14. Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
33. Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State
39. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
50. Isaiah Pead, RB, Cincinnati
65. Trumaine Johnson, CB/S, Montana
96. Chris Givens, WR, Wake Forest
150. Rokevious Watkins, G, South Carolina
171. Greg Zuerlein, K, Missouri Western
209. Aaron Brown, OLB, Hawaii
252. Daryl Richardson, RB, Abilene Christian
Ranked UDFA: Sammy Brown (158), DeAngelo Peterson (184), Matt Daniels (228)
Total Score: 76

I love the Rams UDFA class, especially Brown. I think he’ll be a solid situational pass rusher in the NFL with upside as more. Jenkins, Johnson and Givens were major steals as well.

20. Tennessee Titans
20. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
52. Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
82. Mike Martin, DT, Michigan
115. Coty Sensabaugh, CB, Clemson
145. Taylor Thompson, TE/DE, SMU
190. Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma State
211. Scott Solomon, DE, Rice
Ranked UDFA: DaJohn Harris (141), William Vlachos (248)
Total Score: 70

The Titans got a great UDFA in DaJohn Harris due to health, the rest of the picks were right around where I had them ranked, other than Coty Sensabaugh, who was a reach based on athleticism.

21. Houston Texans
26. Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois
68. DeVier Posey, WR, Ohio State
76. Brandon Brooks, G, Miami of Ohio
99. Ben Jones, C/G, Georgia
121. Keshawn Martin, WR, Michigan State
126. Jared Crick, DE/DT, Nebraska
161. Randy Bullock, K, Texas A&M
195. Nick Mondek, OT, Purdue
Ranked UDFA: Dwight Jones (114), Eddie Pleasant (173), Shawn Loiseau (232), Case Keenum (235), Loni Fangupo (242)
Total Score: 56

DeVier Posey was a major reach at 68, Jones may have a better career if he ever cares despite going undrafted. Crick fell due to injuries, but could be a major steal.

22. Cleveland Browns
3. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
22. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
37. Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California
87. John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati
100. Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami
120. James-Michael Johnson, ILB, Nevada
160. Ryan Miller, G, Colorado
204. Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas
205. Billy Winn, DE/DT, Boise State
245. Trevin Wade, CB, Arizona
247. Brad Smelley, TE, Alabama
Ranked UDFA: Garth Gerhart (225)
Total Score: 29

Loved the Weeden, JMJ, Miller, Winn and Smelley picks. Schwartz I liked, but I thought was overdrafted. Travis Benjamin hurt the Browns the most. I watched him enough but did not rank him in my top 250.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
38. Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
70. Bryan Anger, P, California
142. Brandon Marshall, OLB, Nevada
176. Mike Harris, CB, Florida State
228. Jeris Pendleton, DT, Ashland
Ranked UDFA: Mike Brewster (97), Ryan Davis (196)
Total Score: 5

The punter hurt them, I couldn’t help but grade them poorly for that one despite the fact that I didn’t rank him. Brewster and Davis were nice UDFA picks. I thought Blackmon did not deserve a top 5 selection.

24. Seattle Seahawks
15. Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, West Virginia
47. Bobby Wagner, OLB, Utah State
74. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin
106. Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State
114. Jaye Howard, DT, Florida
154. Korey Toomer, ILB, Idaho
172. Jeremy Lane, CB, Northwestern State
181. Winston Guy, S, Kentucky
225. J.R. Sweezy, DT, N.C. State
232. Greg Scruggs, DT, Louisville
Ranked UDFA: Tauren Poole (180)
Total Score: -3

I’m actually one of the defenders of the Seahawks class. I thought Wagner, Wilson, Turbin and Howard were all great picks, as was J.R. Sweezy. The problem was that I had all those players ranked roughly where the Seahawks took them.

25. Denver Broncos
36. Derek Wolfe, DT, Cincinnati
57. Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State
67. Ronnie Hillman, RB, San Diego State
101. Omar Bolden, CB, Arizona State
108. Philip Blake, C, Baylor
137. Malik Jackson, DE, Tennessee
188. Danny Trevathan, OLB, Kentucky
Ranked UDFA: Duke Ihenacho (151), Coryell Judie (159), Jerry Franklin (182), Gerell Robinson (238)
Total Score: -4

Malik Jackson was actually my highest ranked player in the Broncos class. I thought Wolfe was a borderline 3rd/4th rounder, and I though Osweiler and Hillman were both giantly overrated.

26. Dallas Cowboys
6. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
81. Tyrone Crawford, DE/DT, Boise State
113. Kyle Wilber, ILB, Wake Forest
135. Matt Johnson, S, Eastern Washington
152. Danny Coale, WR/P, Virginia Tech
186. James Hanna, TE, Oklahoma
222. Caleb McSurdy, ILB, Montana
Ranked UDFA: Levy Adcock (189), George Bryant (230)
Total Score: -15

The Claiborne trade up was a nice move. The Cowboys got a top 5 player outside the top 5. I didn’t have Crawford ranked nearly as high as 81.

27. Atlanta Falcons
55. Peter Konz, C/G, Wisconsin
91. Lamar Holmes, OT, Southern Miss
157. Bradie Ewing, FB, Wisconsin
164. Jonathan Massaquoi, DE, Troy
192. Charles Mitchell, SS, Mississippi State
249. Travian Robertson, DT, South Carolina
Total Score: -30

I thought Konz was one of the steals of the draft. The Falcons got very lucky to get a first round caliber player with their first pick in the draft. Taking fullback Bradie Ewing in the 5th round hurt them.

28. Chicago Bears
19. Shea McClellin, DE, Boise State
45. Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
79. Brandon Hardin, S, Oregon State
111. Evan Rodriguez, TE, Temple
184. Isaiah Frey, CB, Nevada
220. Greg McCoy, CB, TCU
Ranked UDFA: James Brown (138)
Total Score: -54

To most, McClellin and Jeffery might have looked like good picks, but I actually had both ranked lower. I had Hardin a lot lower due to missing a whole season. James Brown was one of the most confusing UDFAs. I saw a nice player there.

29. New Orleans Saints
89. Akiem Hicks, NT, Canada
122. Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin
162. Corey White, S, Samford
179. Andrew Tiller, G, Syracuse
234. Marcel Jones, OT, Nebraska
Total Score: -70

It’s not a big surprise that the Saints didn’t rank highly. They had few picks and reached in my opinion on their first pick in Hicks.

30. Carolina Panthers
9. Luke Kuechly, OLB, Boston College
40. Amini Silatolu, G/OT, Midwestern State
103. Frank Alexander, DE, Oklahoma
104. Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas
143. Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina
207. Brad Nortman, P, Wisconsin
216. D.J. Campbell, S, California
Ranked UDFA: Matt Reynolds (187)
Total Score: -98

Frank Alexander was the biggest reason this happened. He wasn’t ranked in my top 250 and I had watched enough tape on him to rank him. Joe Adams was a major steal.

31. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis
44. Jeff Allen, G, Illinois
74. Donald Stephenson, OT, Oklahoma
107. Devon Wylie, WR, Fresno State
146. DeQuan Menzie, CB/S, Alabama
182. Cyrus Gray, RB, Texas A&M
218. Jerome Long, DT, San Diego State
238. Junior Hemingway, WR, Michigan
Total Score: -118

I really liked Jeff Allen, but even I didn’t have him ranked as high as 44. Stephenson was a reach based on athleticism. I really like the Hemingway pick.

32. Buffalo Bills
10. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
41. Cordy Glenn, G/OT, Georgia
69. T.J. Graham, WR, N.C. State
105. Nigel Bradham, OLB, Florida State
124. Ron Brooks, CB, LSU
144. Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State
147. Tank Carder, LB, TCU
178. Mark Asper, G, Oregon
251. John Potter, K, Western Michigan
Ranked UDFA: Delano Howell (190), Aaron Corp (203)
Total Score: -172

Ouch, despite two big UDFA pickups, the Bills scored last. TJ Graham hurt their score the most. I had him outside my top 250, and it was for a reason. I watched enough tape of Graham to rank him and didn’t.

Continue to Page: 1 2

Tags: , , ,

26 Responses to “2012 NFL Draft: Value Draft Grades”

  1. Jim Keddy says:

    Two of the Patriots UDFAs who were not on your spread sheet
    (Forster and Bolden) were rated higher than most of the Jets UDFAs that you listed. They would tilt the value a little towards the Patriots.

  2. Spearhead says:

    I’d also like a moment of silence for the poor young men drafted by NYJ. Keep some cologne on a hankie incase Rex should remove his footwear. Don’t worry, you’ll probably have a new coach before your contract ends.

  3. Spearhead says:

    I’d like to note that STL drafted several players PATs fans on this site wanted to go to the PATs. We’ll see how well STL improves.

  4. Tony D says:

    So what your saying is to totally disregard these “rankings” because they are based on what an amateur thinks about the players values? Okay cool, because I hope you wouldn’t actually want anyone to believe that you know more than professional nfl talent evaluators.

  5. Jim Keddy says:

    Your spread sheet has one omission who would add value
    points for the Patriots, Marcus Forston. He was rated 107th
    best player by Great Blue North. This was much higher than any of the Jets UDFAs.

    This assumes that Forston has, indeed, signed with the Patriots.

  6. drock says:

    Eric Page is now with the Broncos, not the Buccaneers.

  7. qwerty says:

    Doug is being criticized for really nothing. He came up with the system of ranking and based on that quantitative systemm came out with a ranking. It is what it is. He is not saying this is the end all or be all of ranking. He can only watch the tape of so many players. It may take him weeks to implement alternative methods so not practical with his time. If you had a better way to systematically rank them, you should suggest what that is.

    I prefer the intuition ranking. Going with your gut feel. I couldn’t do that for every team or player except maybe pick out which five teams had the best draft at most although maybe Doug can.

    Doug is in information overload and that can be a disadvantage in seeing the forest. He may know too much. I got another suggestion for Doug. Rate the teams based only on draft and not UDFA and only rate on 4 best players selected. Then throw in some intuition. If a team gets 4 players that work for them, it is a home run draft.

    • qwerty says:

      Rank the UDFA separately in the same way. UDFA players can actually be in much better position because they can choose which teams they want to try out for.

  8. Joe Blake says:

    It will take three years to determine if this years pats draft was a success or not. by then, we will have gone through: countless players, three more drafts, three more seasons records and post season play…so no one will really be able to focus on the 2012 draft results in 2015 unless they go hide in a box for that time period. By then BB and TB will be retired and a totally new focus will result. If they win one SB between now and then, I will be satisfied.

  9. Lundahl says:

    Bills are so not last. And how are the Jets ranked so high ?

    • Doug Kyed says:

      I went completely based on this in the intro:

      “I ranked 250 players this year before the draft. Any player that was drafted above my ranking, gets the difference in a negative score, any player that was drafted below my ranking gets the difference in a positive score. All undrafted players are scored as though they were the 254th player drafted and any player that I did not rank and did not watch enough tape to rank gets an incomplete, or no score at all. I figured this was a way to grade the draft based on my perceived “value.” The only “opinion” I put into these grades was pre-draft.”

      No bias involved, just based on pre-draft rankings.

      • Lundahl says:

        I understand your point and I did read your intro. If you put it this way – I believe the Bills whom until now have had disastrous drafts, have done a good job this year. But you can also pick up great value in firsts and second and big flops as well, that’s what I’m trying to say. Like the Jets who drafted Sanchez, Keller, Wilson and Wilkerson, those are busts. But I don’t agree on the Jets. I’m not hating on them, I just don’t believe they are that high. But you do a good job btw

  10. Dan says:

    This doesn’t belong in this discussion, but I want to write this now because it’s just great info, and I was listening to the radio and heard some good stuff.

    On the Wilson pick in the 2nd round:

    I watched the Parcells ESPN special again this year and he offered another great point this year (last year he summed up the rookie pay scale in billions of dollars…or some fraction…lost to first rounders…gave the actual stats/$$$ over the last 5 years or so…great stuff; especially on why the Pats always dropped out). This year he mentioned that if he were coaching today he would have 3 corners on the field on first down, always. He would drop a safety…deal with passing on first down, and not the run etc…

    I feel this brings some insight as to why BB took Wilson so high. The kid has the hybrid body of a safety/corner, more so, he’s played both and both sides (and special teams). He’s a 4.5 guy, but is a solid 205 with no health issues.
    I think he wants someone like that to mold into that position Parcells was talking about…but, as a new hybrid player…disguise ability, position flexibility…can cover, move to corner, play safety in the box, whatever…

    I doubt highly that he just took some kid for the hell of it…he, and his staff probably looked long & hard for such a player and they decided on Wilson.

    The second part of this was the fact that they (this came from the radio caller) had only 2 picks left in the draft. So, they didn’t want to mess around, probably didn’t get a call back on any draft down attempts, so they pulled the trigger because that was their guy for this new player-type. Then, they went to work on getting that trade-down and made that happen.

    Sorry for straying from the subject.

  11. Dan says:

    I’ve noticed in all these grades being done that the teams that come with the higher grades are the ones that seem to follow the mock world.
    For example, Philly is getting “A’s” across the board and high praise. I happen to agree…I like what they did.
    But, I think it’s less about talent and more about having their picks reflect the opinion of the Kipers and all the other mockers.
    All it will take for their draft to suck, in reality, is for Cox to simply be an average D-lineman…a JAG, and maybe for Kendricks to play as an under-sized MLB and be abused by larger receivers & TE’s in the league. That’s not such a stretch…
    Right now they’re both going to the Hall of Fame. Why, because it’s what we all thought would happen, so there’s some ego thing going on.

  12. Jim R says:

    It looks like the Bengals drafted right out of “Mels top 10 available” when they drafted.

    • Doug Kyed says:

      haha, typically right out of “Doug’s top 10 available” as well. Thus the high score.

  13. Jim R says:

    It looks like the Bengals drafted right out of “Mels to 10 available” when they drafted.

  14. Jim R says:

    So what you saying Doug is the Bills are last. Ha Ha Ha

  15. TD says:

    Relax everybody, much like all the so-called “experts” (Kiper et al) this list is also put together by someone that is not:

    1 NFL head coach
    2 NFL GM
    3 NFL Player Dev.
    4 NFL Scout
    5 or even a secretary with any team

    An example of how arbitrary any evaluation at this point is, consider that Belichick assigns a “value” to a possible pick dependant on how they feel the player would perform in their system, at a position, in that year. The “value” is not based on hype/atheletic abilityl/actual game performances/senior bowl/combine. Some clubs will also base the “value” on possible future development.

  16. Doug Kyed says:

    It’s going to be very interesting to see who actually reads the intro and who doesn’t. Pretty obvious the first two commenters did not.

    • Dan says:

      I need to speak to Doug here for a moment…
      I did read what you are doing…pretty cool, and I will probably comment below, but I feel that many of these strong comments are the result of so many draftniks feeling a bit foolish following the actual draft.
      I know I’m feeling a bit silly….ranking players and seeing them fall out of the draft completely…there are too many examples to mention.
      To sum it up, there seems to be a phenomenon on all these sites of mimicking and slotting players to a certain ranking. The best example (and it’s exaggerated) that comes to mind is Burfict…he was on most all first or second round mocks up until a month ago, or so, mostly slotted to the Ravens. Now, was this because he resembles an aging Lewis in his vocal game, or because he actually has the skill to play MLB in the NFL? More so, was it because everyone just kept saying to themselves, “this looks like a good pick for the Ravens and everyone else has him there so it must have some validity”?
      I’ve said this before on this site, and others, that we don’t know the medicals, we don’t know the interview (detective work) etc…But, how many of us really know NFL talent? To start with, it’s 50/50 odds for the best in the business who have access to the medicals, interviews, team plans etc…
      But, it’s fun, and I appreciate this site and all the hard work, fact gathering (lots of good stuff this year), and the friendly discussion.

      • Doug Kyed says:

        I personally don’t feel foolish at all after the draft. 65 players that I didn’t rank got drafted. As one person, I can’t get to every player and I don’t feel comfortable ranking players I didn’t watch enough of. I have no problem ranking 188/253 players drafted.

        I rank players based on how I think they will do in the NFL, not based on where I think they’ll be drafted. I’ll feel much better if I nail every late round steal than whether those guys went in the first round.

        As for Burfict, that was a product of perceived need, plus a bit of group think, plus his 2010 tape. He played much worse in 2011, acted out more, and then finally dropped due to his workouts.

  17. BILL says:

    The Bills last??? Come on. There picks 3,4,5th round picks will all be contributors. Gimore is a reach, but a very good player.

    Patriots only had 1st round with any quality, and completely blew the 2nd round. The FA they signed at the end were far better than the 6th, 7th round picks. I don’t get that. I rate them a C- at best.

    • Lundahl says:

      What about Denard ? People say that every year about their draft but the play nearly in the SuperBowl every year.

  18. Michael says:

    Absolute BS. How you rank the Bills last is total BS. You seriously rate the Broncos draft better? Yawn.

  • Categories

  • Search NEPD Archives

  • Archives