Open Thread: Trade Up or Trade Down?

Bill Belichick Patriots Coach

What is Belichick thinking this April?

NEPD Editor: James Christensen

You don’t always know what he’s going to do on draft day, but one thing is certain. Bill Belichick is going to be very active moving up and down the board.

Which way do you want the Patriots to move this year?

I’m almost always in favor of trading down, especially if it allows the Patriots to continually have the advantage of more picks in the top 100 every year than any other NFL team.

However, I think there is a way for the Patriots to do a little bit of both this year. I’d like to see the Patriots target a top-notch front seven player like Fletcher Cox and go up and get him. They can maneuver with their second and third round picks to pick up some late round and future selections.

Although I won’t be disappointed if the Patriots stand “pat” or even trade down, as I see the reasons why, put me firmly in the trade up camp.

What would you like the Patriots to do and why?

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48 Responses to “Open Thread: Trade Up or Trade Down?”

  1. KG says:

    Peter King in SI projected the Browns trading up from 37 to 27 to select OK State QB Brandon Wheeden. NE would also receive a third-round choice from Cleve for dropping down into the second round….Assuming the Pats don’t trade up first, and that some guys they have targeted are off the board, and they have a couple of other players they like, and getting another pick would help, then yeah I’m on board. Pull the trigger.

  2. KG says:

    As a Patriots’ fan, I understand all the frustration and hand-wringing each April when BB trades down and out of the first round. Brady isn’t getting younger, and all that. Still, I think they need to make a deal or two again if it’s worth it. Because of some trades in the past for veterans, the team does not have a pick beyond the fourth round this year. Are there any guaranteed elite players beyond the top ten? I think Kuiper has given a grade of 90 or above to about 26 or 27 prospects, and picking at 27 and 31 does it really matter if we pick a kid in the first round. Doesn’t it make sense to drop down a few spots into the second round to continue the franchise’s long-term viability by adding some picks this year and/or next? BB ususally targets guys that other coaches and/or GMs don’t anyway, so chances are he’ll get his guys in the second and third rounds while getting some value and additional options along the way….Belichick has coached 12 seasons in Foxboro and had only one losing season, his first, after taking over a club that had been in decline for three seasons (97-99) following a SB appearance.

  3. John says:

    I skimmed through most of the posts, and have yet to hear/see anyone mention the possibility of trading for a “proven” edge rusher, already in the league. I feel as though the Pats have been in the mix since the 07 SB loss, but what many non-Patriots fans forget is that they’ve been rebuilding, and STILL winning. With the off-season acquisitions, and returning players, the Pats have few holes, and we all know that it’s on the defensive side of the ball. Isn’t this the “ONE” year that BB and the Patriots can and should trade up? Or, trade for an established player (ie. Jared Allen)? Thoughts?

  4. Lundahl says:

    I would trade down one of the firsts. There’s allot of depth in this draft, take advantage of it.

  5. AFL says:

    It would be great to get a Cox or Brockers but i don’t know if they can avoid giving up the farm to do it. Help is needed at DE, DB, even LB, & one Randy Moss type speed guy on the outside. i think BB waits to see who falls at 27(Perry?) then trades down into the second where there are a lot of very good prospects: DB-Robinson, Smith, Johnson; LB-Irvin; WR-Quick,Childs.

    • Mark says:

      My favorite round 2 accumilation scenario mentioned b4.

      PATS 27+95+127=~680+120+45=845 for PHI 46+51=~440+390=~830

      BB would have 31,46,48,51,63 = One 1st rounder and 4 second rounders because the Eagles will want to trade up to grab a lineman at 27 after taking Keukly or Whomever at 15.

      Do a PATS mock with them apples.

      • Mark says:

        31 Jenkins CB
        46 Shea falls on concussion? LB or Crick or Z.brown or…
        48 Trumiane J. CB/S or Harrison Smith or IIoka
        51 Curry DT or Best available
        61 Trade because we’re all set or Best available WR

        • Jimmy says:

          heres my wishlist:
          27(We will keep it this year!):Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB ILLINOIS
          31:Jenkins CB North Alabama
          48 George Iloka FS BOISE STATE
          51 Curry or best DE available
          61 Trade for whatever the hell we can get out of it, because I agree with you, after these picks we are set.

  6. Bob Shannon says:

    Is Cox or Brockers going to be in the top 10??? Maybe between 11 & 16 and could the pats trade the first four to move up and grab both of them????? Sometimes I think its easier to just sit tight with your own pick and take your lumps…

  7. rickey says:

    i c blackmon as a crabtree twin. floyd can b good but he must pay attention 2 detail really want it cuz he lacks elite physical talent. 4 my $$ i like randle. he is more exlosive than blackmon or floyd but im not sold if he is still explosive enough 2 seperate in the nfl. again if he really wants 2 b great he could b a pro bowler cuz he does have some explosiveness 2 use if he dedicates himself 2 his craft

  8. adamj says:

    i think the pats should stand pat and not deal any of their first3 picks. we need to infud[se the team with some top end young talent and speed. the one player i think they should avoid is devon still. i do not trust the recent talent out of penn s(a lot of busts with high picks over last ten years). i like the idea of a pass rusher,poss. nick perry, a safety poss. harrison smith or better yet george ioaka, and a dt poss. brokers if avl. or jerel worthy

    • Jimmy says:

      hell yeah i agree with you.
      27:Whitney Mercilus/Shea McClelin
      31:Janoris Jenkins
      1st Second Round:George Iloka/Markelle Martin(who has visited the pats)
      2nd Second Round: Kendall Reyes/Best Pass Rusher Available.

  9. Tom says:

    Trade Down (unless Michael Brockers falls to the 20’s):

    1. Harrison Smith…S
    2. Bruce Irvin……..OLB
    3. Akiem Hicks……DT
    4. A.J. Jenkins……WR
    5. Omar Bolden…CB

  10. @59russo59 says:

    heres the thing with constantly moving down and stockpiling picks – its not like we hit on all of these picks we gather. especially in the 2nd round as of late (hernandez and gronk were a welcome addition). however, we usually hit in the 1st round, especially within the top half of the 1st round, so why not trade up and just choose a beastly pass rusher FOR ONCE

    • Andy F says:

      Because it’s not easy? Because the other teams may not want to trade down? Because it might cost more than we have? Because the talent for pass rushers this year might not be that beastly after all?

  11. Andy F says:

    I’m happy with them sticking with 27 and then trading down from 31 and acquiring more picks. Honestly, the players projected to go between rounds 15 and 26 don’t seem to be overwhelmingly better than the players available at 27 and 31.

    Looking at the 2nd and 3rd rounds, however, I see a lot of players that I like and I wouldn’t mind stockpiling these players.

    Jerel Worthy (DT), Derek Wolfe (DT), Vinny Curry (DE), Markelle Martin (FS), Trumaine Johnson (CB – possible FS), Chase Minnifield (CB), Dwayne Allen (TE), LaMichael James (RB), Mohamed Sanu (WR), Marvin Jones (WR), Nick Toon (WR), Reuben Randle (WR), Joe Adams (WR), Jarius Wright (WR), Greg Childs (WR). Then there are players like Janoris Jenkins (CB) who could potentially fall out of round 1.

  12. Dan says:

    I want them to trade up to get a better quality player on defense. I completely understand why they traded back in the past and why they wanted more picks…I’ve mentioned it a bit too much. This year is different for many reasons. This is the first year where the rookie salary cap is known going into the draft…before first round picks were a potential huge risk because of the cap hit. This particular draft tends to get weak quickly…I only see a few quality defensive players I would be willing to take in the first…Cox, Barron (for the Pats), maybe Brockers; and I’m only talking about guys not in the top 6, or so…I wouldn’t want them to trade up that high.
    So, this is the year that makes sense…go up and get a Barron or Cox, or whoever….don’t give away the farm. Then, turn around and use the other picks to move back a few and regain, if possible.
    But, if they are sitting there at 27 & 31…I could see them moving back with one, if not both; if a particular trade hasn’t presented itself to move up. And, nobody knows if this is going to happen…not BB, or the other teams…the board and draft will unfold and deals will be discussed, and we’ll never know.
    But, the salary factor coupled with our needs are the keys…also the weaker players…especially pass rushers (very average, at best this year), and the fact that I highly doubt he wants to bring in 4 top rookies …that’s not a good situation…too much inexperience on a playoff team wanting to get back to the Super Bowl…realistically; especially in their division.

    • Jim R says:

      Then you need to get top ten. 27 and 31 wont do it

      • Mark says:

        Trading high is expensive but BB has the Hoodie power to trade quite high withoout using a future pick.

        27+31 = ~680+600 =~1280 Thats KC @11

        27+31+95=~680+600+95=~1400 Thats MIA @8 -will never happen

        27+31+63=~680+600+297=~1580 Thats Jax @ 7 and would still leave us with 48,95,127 and maybe some trade back.

        27+31+63+127=~680+600+297+45=1625 and maybe a deal with STL@6.

        27+31+48=~680+600+420=~1700 Thats TB@5

        27+31+48+63=~680+600+420+297=~2000 CLE @4 with some possible trade back.

        27+31+48+63+95=~680+600+420+297=~2120 – almost to MINN – so throw in Hoyer or Mallet to complete the trade.

        27+31+48+63+next year’s first round pick may get them to WAS but why?

        #1 is truly out of reach.

  13. bob kershaw says:

    I don’t necessarily agree. Who’s to say that there are any real “studs” near the top? It seemsd like so many have not lived up to there billing in past years. I think that there are plenty of defensive linemen who could fit into Bill’s sceme in the latter part of the 1st round or the 2nd (Still, Reyes, Curry, etc.). The positions that were not really addressed in free agency have been corner [as they say, you can’t have too many of these], outside “rush” linebacker/end and strong safety [Harrison Smith?]. Another OL would be nice to compliment Mankins and to get ready for Water’s retirement. It may also be nice to have a “tall” wide receiver. I think that we are all getting fed up with our smaller corners constantly being out-manuvered by our opponents “talls”. Plus, this type of “rookie” would have time to develop in the midst of the veteran receivers. The Pats have been well aware of the “quality depth management” philosophy. Let’s continue to seek out quality “football” players, not “potential” studs.

    • Jeff says:

      Who’s to say that the “depth” at the bottom of the first and in the second rounds will pan out? The bottom line is that the higher the pick, the more likely he is to pan out. The best three DL Belichick has drafted since he’s been here — Seymour, Warren, and Wilfork — all went within the first 21 picks, with Seymour and Warren going in the top 13 (Seymour at 6). Our second best defensive player, Mayo, was taken with the 10th pick. One of our best defensive players from the Super Bowl years, Willie McGinest, was the 4th pick. So this idea that taking more guys at lower spots is always better than taking fewer guys at higher spots just does not hold water. Much of our success these past 10-15 years is directly attributable to mid to high first round picks. That does not mean you always trade up. But if a guy is slipping who the Patriots value, they trade up, depth be damned.

      • Andy F says:

        The Patriots are certainly willing to trade up under the right circumstances, but your posts seems to suggest that we need to trade into the top 10 to land an impact defensive player. If that is true, and if we can’t find a good trading partner, wouldn’t that same logic then indicate that trading down from our current picks make sense? It’s a simple fact. Our team is good. We rarely have picks in the top 10.

        • Jim R says:

          Good point If you trade into next year maybe a team falls flat on thier face top 12 next year. Now we are talking

      • Jim R says:

        Jeff what do you think it will take to get in the top 10-14. 27 and 31 aint getting it done

  14. Joey says:

    I wouldn’t mind if they trade up to get a stud to adress the front 7.

  15. bob kershaw says:

    Many of Bill’s trades in past years have been based not on the “Value Chart”, but what he would be willing to pay a draftee in regards to their actual “salary value”, especially with higher round picks. The new “Rookie Salary Cap” adjustment may change his approach to trades. The money that he will now have to expense to pay an “un-tested” rookie will be less of a gamble than in prior drafts. And, what good is it to collect draft choices for future years unless it’s a “too good to be true” trade? Somewhere along the line, you’ll need to cash in on your investment. With Brady at 35 years old and Bill looking toward retirement in possibly the next 3-4 years, now may be the time. Let’s see who’s available at #27 & #31 before we make the decision to trade down or for future picks.

    • Andy F says:

      “Many of Bill’s trades in past years have been based not on the “Value Chart”, but what he would be willing to pay a draftee in regards to their actual “salary value”, especially with higher round picks.”

      Any proof or source for this statement? It doesn’t really match up with what has been presented in books like War Room.

      • Mark says:

        They changed the rookie/draftee salaries last year….things may be different now. The Value Chart has only ever been a starting poiint for negotiations – that should be understood. Who wants the deal more also affects the trade, possible question marks etc.

  16. Eric D says:

    I would love to see less emphasis on depth this year and more emphasis on getting potential impact players for the D. More middle of the road “depth” players will not make the Pats D better. I would gladly see the Pats draft two potential impact players that can help the pass rush and/or pass defense, than six “depth” guys. Anyway, half those “depth” players just get cut and end up on the practice squad (if we’re lucky).

    • Jim R says:

      Impact players you are talking about will be gone by pick 20. After that what you might pick at 27 or 31 you can get the same type of player up until pick 100. Is there much difference between Devon Still and Jared Crick. Stephon Gillmore and Trumane Johnson. Andre Branch and Ronell Lewis.
      I think BB knows he can get what he wants if he operates in the second and third round while picking up extra picks for next year.
      Trade 27-Browns for 37 and a # 1 or 2 next year
      Trade 31-Falcons for 55 and a 1 or 2 next year.
      In the second round you would have 37,48,55 and 62 Yes they will also trade one of those for a third and a 5th or 6th this year.
      37-Kendall reyes
      48 Ronell Lewis
      55-Mitchell Schwartz (you know he will pick one)
      62-Trumane Johnson
      93-Derek Wolfe
      126- Marvin Jones
      Very Boring draft all those players could contribute next year

      • Andy F says:

        I am pretty sure that in most years where BB has had two picks in the first round, he has used his first pick and traded his second pick. When they drafted Mayo they traded down from 7 to 10 with their first pick, I think. I don’t think he has ever traded down with his first two picks.

  17. Andrew says:

    Trade 27 and 48 for a mid-teens pick (Eagles at 15?) to get Brockers, Coples or Cox (most likely only Brockers would still be available). Then trade 31 for a 2012 3rd rounder 2013 and 1st. And finally trade the lower of the two third rounders for a 5th and a 6th. So our 2012 picks would be: 1(15), 2(62), 3(?), 4(126), 5(?) and 6(?), with an extra 2013 1st to boot.

  18. Yesares says:

    What about using Brian Hoyer & a firts round pico to trade up into mid’s 10s?

    • Eric D says:

      Won’t happen because Hoyer has little trade value. Simply a backup QB who went undrafted out of college and has hardly played in the NFL. Guys like that are a dime a dozen. BH looks great in preseason games, but almost every team has a backup QB who shines in the preseason.

  19. Kemicol says:

    27 take de/olb upshaw would be great or the stud from Boise state trade 31 for next year and more picks this year in 2 or 3 round
    Then dt help will be there in second round as
    Well as secondary I would rather them use the 31st on Harrison smith he won’t be there late in the second or long in the secong

  20. Jeff says:

    Trade up. The D-line is sorely lacking in talent and hasn’t been adequately addressed through the draft in years, and we’re not going to fix it by trading down. There are two elite prospects that would be great fits — Cox and Brockers — one of whom will likely be there at 13, which is Arizona’s pick, and Arizona lacks a second a rounder. The positions we would theoretically be targeting in rounds 2 and 3, like CB/S, OLB, perhaps WR, maybe G, are fairly deep this year. I’d rather grab an elite DL prospect early, and then use our later picks on other positions.

    • Mark says:

      I did some more homework last night; this time for Jeff.

      There are at least 3 easy trade scenarios for ARI 13:

      PATS (27+62+95+127) ~1150
      PATS (27+31+95) ~1150
      PATS (27+48+127) ~1150

      and that doesn’t involve future picks.

      I also agree that Cox and Brockers – possibly Decastro are the only ones who may realistically be there who are worth the trade up cost.

      As for trends – BB doesn’t follow them – he purposely creates unpredictability in all aspects of his coaching. I think he will limit his trade for future picks this year because of how close they came this year. Brady is aging and they may be able to generate some future picks with Mallet or Hoyer at some point in the future. Best to hold them until QBs start getting hurt this year and their value increases.

  21. Jon says:

    I’m in favor of either standing pat or pushing one of their first rounders into 2013 and maybe picking up a second or third rounder for this year. Realistically I don’t think there’s all that many spaces for rookies on this roster so I’m not sure there’s much of a point trying to make a high number of selections this year.

  22. Phil says:

    I would be fine with staying put at #27 and addressing the pass rush problem there…then with #31 I would like to see them trade down into the second round…so with 3 second round picks I would use another one of those and trade down again for a 5th round pick and another pick next year. So we have 2 second picks, and then we can find quality depth at CB/S and DL/DE…also LB.

  23. Andrew says:

    A well-informed source (via another website) reported that the Patriots will “exploit a falling player” at #27, and will deal #31 to move down into the second round (much like they did last year). NFL network reported last night that teams are looking to trade up into the first round to pick Brandon Weeden and beat another team to the punch. I agree with that plan, but it would be cool to package #27 and #31 to move up to, say, #13 and select Fletcher Cox. If the source is correct, I would like to see a draft like this:

    1. DE/DT Devon Still
    2a. OG Kevin Zeitler
    2b. OLB/DE Vinny Curry
    2c. CB Janoris Jenkins
    3. S Brandon Taylor
    4. WR Joe Adams

    • Ken W says:

      Joe Adams isn’t making it to the 4th round, end of the 2nd maybe. I do like the idea of Stills and then sliding back though.

    • AP says:

      I totally agree. B-man will definitely trade one of his firsts this year for a 2nd rounder this year and a first next year. He does that so he has the ammunition to do whatever he wants in the draft. He hasn’t seen the players available to move up where the cost was worth it.

      I do hope that with the first pick he takes a DL/DT – I think that is a critical need and it is a deep position this year where he can get a starter.

      I was convinced, until they signed Koppen, their plan was to draft P. Konz (sp?) and trade the other pick and Patriot Nation would have freaked out! But now that they have Connelly and Koppen I am sure that isn’t going to happen.


    • STEVEN G says:

      Agree mostly with u A. Trade out of 31 ONLY if u recieve a 2 this year + an additional 3rd this or next year, not another 1 next year. then replace 2a-S Harrison Smith/2b-OLB Andre Branch/2c-WR Brian Quick/3-DE Derek Wolfe…….me happy!

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