23 Responses to “Mike Loyko’s Pre-Combine Top 151 Big Board”

1. Lawrence Taylor says:

   February 13, 2012 at 9:01 am

   I love that your big board is big, not 25 or 32 players.

2. JI says:

   February 12, 2012 at 4:29 pm

   I think you undervalue Crick, and think the Pats will consider him in the first. His So. and Jr. year tape is key. Can he add bulk? I think so, and his height is ideal.

   • Mike Loyko says:

     February 13, 2012 at 7:26 am

     Crick is someone I watched film on over the weekend I will be moving him up a little bit

     • JI says:

       February 13, 2012 at 7:34 pm

       Good to hear. Your site gets better and better, keep up the good work.

3. Bruschi54 says:

   February 12, 2012 at 12:39 pm

   I like the list, it is interesting how differently many of the “experts” evaluate Alshon Jeffery, Zach Brown & Whitney Mercilus. Some project all 3 as top 15 picks, others have them in the middle of round 2. Jeffery seems to be the one that people disagree the most on, but would like nice to the Pats if he slid to their first pick in round 2.

4. Tom says:

   February 11, 2012 at 10:57 pm

   It is interesting to see where you ranked the players and then compare their ranking to where they are projected to be drafted, particularly Sanu and Minnifield. It will be interesting to see if someone wants to trade back into the late first round to grab Weeden. I suppose that would require a willing trading partner though…..

5. qwerty says:

   February 11, 2012 at 7:08 pm

   My only beef with this list is that Prioris should be behind Luck.

   • prioris says:

     February 11, 2012 at 7:17 pm

     he meant Qwerty

     • Tom says:

       February 11, 2012 at 10:58 pm

       Everyone should be behind Luck.

6. Lundahl says:

   February 11, 2012 at 4:24 pm

   @ Mike or Doug – according to you if BB picks an offensive lineman (except for the center position which I guarantee he’ll draft one), who would you see him drafting ? Is there any chance that (cliché) big OT prospects do drop back late ? I’d love to have MK or Mike Adams – but I really see BB picking a 2nd round OT. Personally Nate Potter.

   • Mike Loyko says:

     February 11, 2012 at 4:34 pm

     They have Vollmer and Solder, not to mention Matt Light signed for another year, so they will definitely not be drafting one in round 2. If they draft a none center it will be a guard or a back up tackle type on Day 3… theres no need to spend a high pick on a center.. they will likely be able to pick on up in round 3 if they really want one.

     • Lundahl says:

       February 11, 2012 at 4:57 pm

       Any idea of whom they might possibly draft at center

       • qwerty says:

         February 11, 2012 at 7:15 pm

         Kareem Abdul Jabbar

         

       • Bruschi54 says:

         February 12, 2012 at 12:29 pm

         If they keep both first rounders it will be Konz, he would be great pick even if they traded one of this picks.

7. MJP says:

   February 11, 2012 at 2:07 pm

   I believe BB would say something like this…”What matters most is not what you did to be drafted by the Patriots but what you do once you are a Patriot”.

   BB will not hesitate to move on from a draft pick or any player for that matter, it’s not in the team’s best interest to have a coach who feels obligated to keep under-performing players on the roster just to justify what was ultimately a failed draft pick by the coach or GM(AHHHHEEEMMMM, Rex Ryan).

   I don’t when OLB and DE get addressed, I just care that it gets addressed. I’m sure you’ll see a FS and maybe even another CB, or perhaps someone who plays both…..and I’m sure we’ll see a WR and probably a Center…that’s 6 picks at most and hopefully that’s how many picks we make.

   • TD says:

     February 11, 2012 at 4:06 pm

     What BB does not say is, we drafted you high or gave you a boat load of money to come here so the spotlight is on you to perform.

     I am not a Rex defender, but the GM over there is the one betting the house on high draft picks or bringing in high priced/problem children for him to coach up. The only top picks Tannenbaum has hit on is Revis & Mangold.

8. TD says:

   February 11, 2012 at 12:20 pm

   I find it amazing that the list changes after the combine. What about these guys changes their ranking? Are they better football players because the run a 4.3, have a 42 inch vertical jump or press 250 pounds 9million times?

   It would seem to me the thing that would really change their rankings is the thing that you cannot measure; what’s between their ears. Ever wonder why BB let go of Kevin O’Connell after drafting him in 3rd round in less than 2 years and keep Hoyer? Because he was dumb.

   • Mike Loyko says:

     February 11, 2012 at 3:14 pm

     I don’t really give a shit what someone runs, unless they are a WR or CB, I’m more interested in how they look going through position drills and their flexibility. Also, will be looking at smaller school players I haven’t gotten to see much, to possibly move them up.

     • TD says:

       February 11, 2012 at 4:02 pm

       But isn’t this even a very small snapshot of a players abilities, run in shorts and Tshirt, no defenders?

       Also, does one look for flexibility in a CB if BB plays a ton of zone or a WR if the main thing is to get to an open space and be in tune to #12?

       All very confusing trying to figure what BB’s requirements are as well as other 31 teams, but it makes for a much, much, much more enjoyable offseason making out and checking mock drafts.

   • Doug Kyed says:

     February 11, 2012 at 7:04 pm

     If two players are already incredibly close in your mind, then speed definitely matters. As much tape as you can watch, you’re still only looking at individual players and not comparing them side by side. Running 40 yards without pads definitely doesn’t show you a ton, but it does give you a better idea of where guys stand compared to one another.

     And like Mike said, the individual positional drills definitely count. A lot of these guys have been training nonstop since their college seasons have ended and have picked up nuances along the way from different coaching or different eyes. If Andrew Datko can come out and consistently backpedal without completely bending over at the waist, it might move him up a notch on my board.

9. Rick says:

   February 11, 2012 at 12:04 pm

   So 23 WR’s and 21 CB’s, nice year to need a WR and CB

10. Dan says:

    February 11, 2012 at 11:58 am

    Ridiculous!

    Vick Ballard is clearly better than Nate Potter, but the rest is exactly correct.

    A little humor, but I was thinking about the trade value chart that has been used for some time. What good does it do if a team has players valued differently?

    More importantly, looking back at any draft as a “re-do” you’d completely rearrange the entire draft. Brady is a prime example, but more recently you have Gronk & Hernandez….Gronk would go from a mid 2nd-rounder to a top 10 pick, and Hernandez would go from a 4th (thank you weed!) to a possible top 10 but no far beyond.

    So, if this can be said for a vast majority of the players selected…via hindsight…what value does the trade value chart have? Yes, it’s a tool, but it’s nearly worthless. I’ve read a few articles recently about potentially trading up to where the Pats give up both 1st round picks and possibly one 2nd rounder etc…and grab one player they really like. Well, if you back and look at past drafts you’ll clearly see that this is so risky, not always, but the odds are against you. The Pats know this…the realize that it’s a huge step up to the NFL, and the failure rate is what it is, so therefore you want as more picks than less…this should leave you with more players that make it, and the rest you cast off.

    The two players taken at #’s 27 & 31 could be better individually than a single top 10 player, and history backs this up. On top of this you are now putting all (most) of your eggs in one basket…ignoring another law of the draft that the Pats are equally subjected to year-after-year, that you just don’t know if a player will be who all the “experts” say they will be. This list seems to fall in-line with many of the other lists out there, and I feel this is normal, but it’s still opinion and projection; but, it may also be some kind of falling-in-line phenomena. We all read the lists, and we argue over who is rated #6 over #7, or example. Beyond the top 10 it really gets to be ridiculous.

    My point is this, it’s a necessary tool, as is the trade value chart, but still just a tool with massive flaws worked into it.

    I strongly feel that this is why the Pats are usually trading back and gaining more picks. They are respecting the higher law that this is more chance than we draftniks would like to admit. Having more picks simply increases you odds at finding gold (Gronk & Hernandez, Spikes, Brady…and all the undrafted free agents just add to this evaluation mystery). It’s better to have more than less when it comes to picks…they are spins at the wheel.

    To fully understand this you have to look at the entire league’s draft and over many years (go back 5-10). The failure rates are incredibly high, and where they were drafted seems like drunken tosses at a moving dart board.

    • TD says:

      February 11, 2012 at 12:15 pm

      The other thing to realize is that the Total Hit Contract/Cap wise is getting Your guy as far down as possible. Gronk and Hernandez are extremely high value since they are getting paid as 2nd and 4th rounders but producing at top 10 picks minus the contracts.

      Couple that with the burn-out rate for draft picks it makes great sense (statistically) to have multiple picks in later rounds. Since the talent drops off considerably after round 2, it makes more sense to find/get guys there. If they don’t work out, it is minimal investment and cap hit.

      Since BB always finds gems that are undrafted, their value is very high also, but there is considerable competition from other teams trying to sign those guys also.