Open Thread: Trade-Up Scenarios

2011 NFL Draft Trade

"There has been a trade."

We receive many questions about the Patriots and the NFL Draft each day on Twitter, but the one that comes up the most often is, “Do you think that the Patriots will trade up?”

While we would be shocked if the Patriots didn’t trade up at some point during the draft, we have to assume that they are asking about the 1st Round. We’ve typed our answer a million times already, so we’ll let our readers do most of the talking here.

Here is one scenario to ponder, and then we’ll let the commentators take control:

Washington receives: 1st Round (#17) and 2nd Round (#60)
New England receives: 1st Round (#10) and 7th Round (#213)

If a guy that the Patriots adore falls to the tenth pick, they may need to pounce before Houston (new 3-4 team) makes their selection. Robert Quinn, Da’Quan Bowers, a 3-4 DE, or even a wildcard like Julio Jones could be in play.

Washington doesn’t have a 3rd or 4th round pick, so the #60 could be used to fill in those spots. The Patriots would still have #28 and #33 left, one of which may be parlayed into some additional picks to make up for the loss of their assigned 2nd Round selection.

For your scenarios, please remember to identify why each team would want to make the trade. Keep in mind that no players can currently be traded.

Feel free to use our handy NFL Draft Trade Value Chart to help in your calculations.

Tags: Open Thread, Trade

93 Responses to “Open Thread: Trade-Up Scenarios”

  1. Andrew says:

    We should trade 28 & 60 to 9 and get Jordan. Then Wilkerson at 17. Then at 33 get a C/G. Trade 92 to 70 and get Chris Carter. Get Shane Vereen at 74. Start trading picks into next year, but come away with a CB and Greg McElroy.

  2. Rockdog says:

    Bill ONLY trades up in the first round in the VALUE warrants it. I truly believe he would trade up to the 8-10 range for a few players. This year, I don’t see the value unless Julio Jones, AJ Green, Patrick Peterson or someone like Dareus falls. I suspect they wanted the Raiders 2011 pick because of the two WR’s they knew would be coming out. If they get teh chance at one of them, I say they pull the trigger. Otherwise, they likely move down to add picks next year and load up on 2nd round picks again. In 2nd and 3rd rounds, they can get OLB, solid OL help, a solid RB and WR.

    • Jared says:

      Amen on Prince…San Fran could take him 7th, and i think thats about 10 picks too high.

      I partially agree with you on the second part, Bill doesnt trade up in the first round. Hes done it twice I think but both for defensive lineman. Even though AJ. Green and Julio Jones look like the perfect fit here, I cant see bill trading up in the first round for a WR. We have never even seen him draft one in the first round before. He traded up high in the second round for Chad Jackson about 5 years ago and it wound up being one of his worst…if not his worst draft pick ever here. That being said, id be pumped if they got either of them.

      • cc says:

        Let’s not forget…..When Brady “hobbled off the field”, It was drew Bledsoe who came back in after being seriously injured/replaced and he was the one who kept it going when it needed to be done.
        Including the pass to David Patten to seal that victory let thr roll begin.
        If not for Drew Bledsoe it was GONE before it was even here!

      • cc says:

        He was also the one on the side-lines during that sustained injury coaching Tom Brady saying hear them yes, but listen too me.

  3. Jon L. says:

    That would be fantastic if the Pats could get that 10th pick because maybe someone like Prince will fall to them or maybe a player like Quinn. I like the Redskins scenario.

    • Rockdog says:

      Amukamara is not a top 10 talent. he’s only being discussed as a top-10 pick because of the teams in that range who desperately need a CB. He doesn’t have the ball skills of a top-10 player. He likely will go high but should be drafted at bottom of 1st (a la McCourty last year).

  4. rdf63 says:

    Pats make a trade with the San Francisco who has 12 picks (Regular and compensatory). Pats trade pick #28 for San Francisco’s 2011 Second round, No. 13 (45th overall), 2011 Fourth round, No. 18 (115th overall) and San Francisco’s 2012 second round pick. Pats now have the #33, #45 and #60 in the 2011 second round and keep the 3rd round picks totalling 5 picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Pats then package both 4th round picks in 2011 for a high 3rd round pick in 2012. Pats now have 1 1st round pick, 2 2nd round and 2 3rd round picks in 2012.

  5. TD says:

    Other than Brady, Koppen, Welker, Wilfork, Mayo & McCourtey I doubt BB has anyone else penned in before training camp. Everyone else needs to earn a spot by competing hard in training camp and practice.

    • Jared says:

      that list is definitely bigger than that.
      Gronkowski is your starting TE, you already know what Hernandez is.

      Woodhead and BJGE earned there spots last season.

      Vollmer is your starting tackle on either side.

      Ty Warren comes back healthy as your only starting defensive end.

      • TD says:

        Do you really think that if someone came into camp and lit it up that Gronk, Woodhead, Vollmer and Warren would be locks? Not saying it will happen, but most of those guys are really young, but they all came in and lit it up either last year or before.

        On the other hand, someone comes in and is lights out at say, QB, NT or ILB they will still be sitting.

        • Jared says:

          Woodhead….is a lock for a 3rd down back….

          Gronk…who are they going to get better than Gronkowski…He was a borderline probowler last season

          Vollmer, is a lock for a starting tackle positon

          And Warren and Wilfork are both locks to start..

          I cant see how anyone would see it any different

        • TD says:

          I used to think there were certain guys that were “locks”, but BB cured me of that thinking.

          Past Locks:
          Drew Bledsoe
          Adam Vinetari
          Richard Seymour
          Randy Moss
          Mike Vrabel.

          I even bought a Vrabel jersey just before he was sent to KC.

        • Jared says:

          bad examples…first your talking about guys coming into camp and competing for guys like Gronkowskis job.

          Bledsoe?? was the starter….got hurt…and then…um…o ya…Tom Brady won the flippn superbowl.

          Seymour was traded because they were going to sign Vince and let him go.

          Vinatieri left for more money.

          Just bad examples, i mean…a good example would be Lawyer Milloy beeing cut a week before the opener, because of Rodney Harrison…coming into camp….and playing at a pro-bowl level. So ya, if we bring in a pro-bowler…those guys should worry. But if they dont, and they probably wont at any position, the guys i said earlier are still locks in my opinion for there spot.

          Gronk-starting TE
          Vollmer-starting tackle
          T.Warren-starting DE
          Woodhead…6+ yds/carry last year…3rd down RB
          Hernandez…Dallas clark type H-back/slot TE

        • Jared says:

          that sucks about the Vrabel jersey-haha, i feel your pain…the Vrabel one was a shock, that caught everyone off guard. Its a pretty good example, but he was older and declining, the guys i named are all young,up and coming players.

    • JMC says:

      Koppen?

  6. Jim R says:

    With the first 6 picks, you have to figure al least one of them will be dealt for a 2012 (Yes there will be a draft in 2012) draft pick. You have to factor in that they will not hit on the remaining 5. Lets say 3 work out. I think if you add 3 draft picks into productive positions on this team we will be in great shape.
    Part II They will add some F/A to go along with stroud lets say 4 F/A. 50% success rate translated into 2 more productive players in the mix.
    Part III Bodden and Warren returning will help. The continued development of the young pups on D will solidfy that unit.
    All in all they will be in great shape.

  7. TD says:

    These are the issues I see in this years draft, although I am not the evaluator of talent needed for each position on our team that BB is, but:

    1. Everyone seems to concur that there are 2 sure fire studs: Dareus and Peterson, but the cost to get them from where we are will be very, very steep.

    2. There are possibly 4 DE’s that fit our defense that may be available at #17: Watt, Jordan, Heyward & Wilkerson.

    3. There is 1 OLB project for us that is subject of debate: Quinn, but the cost may be steep and questions quite a few.

    4. There are at least 4 OLB projects in second round: Sheard, Reed, Acho & Houston. Only Houston played LB in college.

    5. There are a few OT’s that come from zone blocking schemes: Costanzo, Marcus Gilbert & James Carpenter.

    6. There are also a few G/C that fit our zone blocking scheme: Wisniewski, Hudson, Boling, Arkin.

    Quinn and the DE’s are first rounders, the rest can be gotten in the second round.

    I would expect one of the DE’s to be taken, then OLB and G/C to be addressed in second round. The one wild card I see is how BB views Ingram if he is available to us.

    • Ryan says:

      I’m glad you pointed out James Carpenter. The latests mock from McShay have him going to the Pats. It makes sense Alabama (Saban) and zone blocking.

  8. kfk5 says:

    What we have learned from years of BB drafts:

    –He is not likely to trade up until he is sure that the $ paid and the picks are for a sure thing–not likely to happen this year, but more possible than ever

    –He will move some picks to next year when teams are very eager. he’ll do this at least once.

    –He is likely to move down a few picks if he thinks his target(s) will still be there ( D McCourty best example)

    –He’ll end up with a DL, OL, OLB, RB, ….then he’ll add another OL/DL & a QB in the 4th-7th rounds.

    –We’ve all waited for the RB & OLB/DE pass rusher for 2 years–but Bill has shown that unless the player fits his mold, physically & mentally & character wise…he does not & will not draft them. And because we on the outside never know the “real story” of the player’s character–we don’t know who is on his board.

  9. Ian says:

    The Pats started stock piling the picks back in 2008. They have been trading back and getting more picks in order to get the overall team younger, faster and more athletic. They have accomplished that by bridging the old regime to what they have now. They youth stock piling is over I believe and they will begin to target certain impact players. The Pats do not need 8 more rookies on the roster drafted in the first four rounds. This is the year to package and trade up. Tom Brady has two or three prime seasons left and the need to win is now. I believe the targeted players are Peterson, Dareus, Quinn, Prince and Miller. I dont think they can get into the top 8 or 9. However if any of those players were to fall to 10 they would trade up without compromising their whole draft. I would love to see Quinn at 10 ( trade 17 and 60). With 28 and 33 take the best available players. Harris and an OL would be ideal.

    • John M says:

      I’m glad that there are some people out there that realize that TB has only 2 or 3 more prime years left in him. That means get QUALITY PLAYERS NOW! It makes more sense than ever to move up this year with the 17th pick.

      • John says:

        What?

        If the 2-3 year concept was actually correct, the correct reaction would be to trade picks for veteran players.

        What exactly are these projections going to “impact” during their rookie year with little or zero offseason activity?

        The problem is “impact” player is code for pass rush specialist. People need to get over that nonsense.

      • TD says:

        I agree, there MAY be only 2 such impact/quality/ready to go players in this draft: Dareus & Peterson. Everyone else has issues/projections/one year wonders and on our team will most likely get the year Price had last year-development.

        • Jared says:

          There is at least 20 quality impact players in every draft, at least. You just have to find them. I want to win now, but i know trading up is unlikely. I feel he will continue what he has done the last two drafts in which hes had success. Keep multiple picks, keep trying to find and bank on cheaper guys like Gronkowski, Hernandez, Vollmer, Cunningham, even McCourty at 28.

        • TD says:

          There are probably more than that 20, the point here is how many would actually contribute to OUR team in 2011 and beyond. Both our defense and offensive schemes require different skill sets than most teams, so there is a lot of projecting out of players from college systems going on.

          With respect to our team as it is constituted now, the only sure fire impact players that I see are Dareus and Peterson. Not to say that there are not others that could come in and contribute right away like Gronk did last year, but any other than the 2 I mentioned have issues/question marks for various reasons (injury, suspensions, one year wonder, etc)

  10. brewski says:

    Her’s the take using this sites big board and selecting players eligible at the picks acquired above…
    38. Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
    41. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
    49. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami or 44. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
    52. Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
    58. Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor
    63. Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona

    round three
    77. Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virgini
    100. Jordan Todman, RB, UConn or 81. Shane Vereen, RB, Cal or 95. Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma

    • JMC says:

      Pouncey is long long gone at at 38-
      Leshoure is a good get if he fits with the locker-room-
      Reed is probably gone at 63-

  11. brewski says:

    I do not see the Pat’s trading up in a draft strong and deep in their perceived needs.

    i actually love the trade down scenarios.

    17 to Denver for their two #2′s.
    28 to SD fot their two later number twos.

    33 to who-ever is sleeping on a qb for day two to get a #2 this year and another next year.(say cinci at 35)

    The later round picks should be moved to next year of minor (5 to 10 pick) moves determined by the ‘runs’ on needs

    Take any draft ‘big board’ and start at 35, and every five players or so, take one…and see how much ist round talent is in this draft.

    Think about 6 of these players plus a couple chances/reaches in round three…

  12. Bill S says:

    I might be interested in trading up to a team looking for an OT. That might be Detroit, if Amukamara and Petersdon are gone, or St Louis. There , you could be more sure of getting the DE you want, without it costing you 2 #1′s.
    All in all, 6 of first 92 picks means you can be successful without being reckless. Let the good pix just come to you

  13. TD says:

    Roger Goddell, look what this work stoppage has done to the fans. They are starting to blog in nautical themes from history, aaaaahhhhhhhhhh!
    -
    IMO, the only reasons to move up in this draft is Dareus & Petersen. While their colleges are both close to the sea, I doubt they have ever been aboard Capt Bills vessel.

  14. Cassis says:

    Honestly, a better trade scenario would be if the pats traded 17, 28, and 92 to washington for 10, and 41….

    there is no chance they move down from 10 to 17 for the 60th pick…thats just robbery

    and with my trade it allows them to get a high – mid 1st round talent…and also jump to get the 3rd/4th best qb at 28 before the second round starts

  15. John says:

    Uhhh Bill

    How many seafaring captains went 14-2 with a crew having over half the snaps taken by rookies and second year sailor’s?

    If you are going to use the lessons of history and literature, I would like learn the actual lessons of history and literature.

    Boot camps and green horns typically don’t hoist Lombardi’s.

    • Bill says:

      I don’t know. It certainly wasn’t the 2010 New England Patriot’s head coach. Because the Pat’s didn’t have that many rookies and second year players.

  16. Ryan says:

    Two years ago Bill said he tried to move up in the first round, but no on wanted to trade with the Patriots. Obviously there is two sides to the story, but its interesting to note, that maybe teams will not want to trade with the Pats. I think its unlikely he moves up in this draft, but I would not put it out of the quesiton, I personally think he wont want to take TOO many players do to roster size. I think he was upset having to let Larsen go last year. Just my thoughts.

    • Bill says:

      Larsen is an interesting comment.

      The strategy involved in drafting NFL player is much like warfare.

      One quick example. In 9 AD a bunch of “Vollmer fans” calculated that they could accurated throw a spear at the rate of, one spear, every four seconds. The calcualation was accurate. Those “Vollmer fans” decimated three Roman legions with their military strategy. It’s called the Battle of the Teurtoburg Forest.

      That’s an appropriate historic battle analogy for the Pat’s draft personel who will be making draft decisions in Late April.

      I will not make any Pat’s draft personnel (so called)workday easier by explaining WHY. I will just submit a map of the USA which highlights the campus of BC and Wisconsin.

      • John says:

        Stalin once said that quantity is a quality all it’s own.

        “The Great Patriotic War” was won under that dictate.

        Also, your history of the Teurtoburg Forest is a lil light. The Romans were continually warned that the Germanic tribes were setting a trap and allowed themselves to placed in a position that totally negated their tactical and strategic advantages.

        As one of the great captains of history, Admiral Belichick choses the time and location of the battle.

        • Bill says:

          Good work, John.

          Captain Ahab was a fictional character derived from a real life seafaring Pat’s fans from Marth’s Vinyard in the early 17th century.

          I know BB knows that because he is a student of history.

          After two sailing disasters, Capt. Bill(Ahab) was one of only two of the survivors of Capt Bill’s nautical nightmares.

          Captain Bill survived by canniballism.

          Which may explain his refusal to sign Mankins to a long-term contract. And Tom Brady’s current seafaring trips to Costa Rica and Brazil.

  17. Jeff says:

    The only way I see the Pats jumping up in the first is if it’s a guy who is rated WAAAY higher than the other options left on the board. Generally that doesn’t happen in the first round becasue the cost is amplified.
    BB said himself in an interview a couple years ago that they look at their board 4-5 spots before they draft and see if there are 5 guys all with similar value at key positions still left on the board. If there are multiple guys they would feel comfortable drafting they stick where they’re at.
    If there’s only ONE guy that they feel is going to be miles and away better than the others left on the board they’ll make a jump.
    The talent is higher in the first round, so it’s much less likely (especially at #17) that they’ll jump up.

    The pick I have circled on my board for a possible trade up is the 60th pick.
    Packaging the 60th and 92nd picks would get you into the middle of Round 2. It’d be possibly as high as the 46th pick.
    The Pats could potentially trade the 28th pick and trade down on the 33rd so I wouldn’t be suprised if they went up with the 60th pick into the 40′s or 50′s.

    They could potentially grab Cam Jordan at 17, trade the 28th pick for a 1st next year and a 4th this year, get Jabaal Sheard at 33, then jump to the 40′s and grab Wisniewski, Moffitt or Cannon. That to me would be the sweet spot of the second round for OL. Wisniewski, Moffitt and Cannon will all go in that area so it would be smart to jump ahead of some of these teams before they make a run on the interior linemen.

  18. JD says:

    Why couldn’t Dareus’ stock drop a bit? haha – He would be perfect in our system next to Wilfork. Versatile D-lineman who can play all positions along a line, stout against the run, and decent at rushing the passer. Plus comes from a Saban defense at Alabama.

    If there is anyway that Dareus falls into the 6-10 range, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Patriots trade up for him. It’s highly doubtful though – can’t see him getting out of the top 5.

    • Jeff says:

      Yeah, I’d be shocked if he get’s out of the top 3 lol!

      • Bill S says:

        Dareus won’t fall far because he’s the real deal. And except for Peterson, all the others have a wart raises at least the hint of non-stardom. I wouldn’t trade up more than a couple spots for any of these guys, including Von Miller

  19. cash says:

    People forget that BB has moved up before, he traded up for Ty Warren. If BB thinks there is value in a player a few spots up he will do it. I dont think the Pats will trade into the top 10 but i could see the 10-15 range. I hope there is a run on QBs early so some good players get pushed back into that 10-15 range, then I could see a trade up. I think we can bank on the pick 33 getting traded, teams will be calling all night for that pick!

    • TD says:

      If I remember right, they moved up about 5 spots to 13 for Ty because there were only 2 DT’s that year that could play 3-4 DE. The idiot Jets moved way up to #4 to take Robertson, who crashed and burned.

      • Cash says:

        And BB jumped right in front of the Rams because he knew they were looking for a DL. The rams got stuck with Jimmy Kennedy, needless to say BB knew what he was doing.

  20. John M says:

    Jared brought up a good point about Tom Brady being 35 years old this year which means get QUALITY players NOW. Since the pats are giving players like Tyron Smith and Prince private workouts, it’s telling me that they’re are exploring the opportunity of moving up. These 2 players are most likely in the 8-12 range which means that Washington and Minnesota would make good trade partners. I think BB is going to move up in this years draft because he won’t take any chances of his player not being there. I would then trade the 28th pick, but only move down 3 or 4 spots and improve a 3rd round pick into the middle of the 2nd round. I would also trade the 33rd pick also since some team will overpay to get a middle first round talent that slips to the 33rd pick. There will be plenty of offers for this pick and they should take advantage of it. Last years draft tells me that BB knows what he’s doing and I have 100% confidence in whatever draft strategy he has. I DON’T WANT THEM TO TRADE DOWN ON THEIR 17th PICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • TD says:

      I doubt BB is going to change his draft strategies based on #12′s age, especially after 2008.

      I don’t read much into who they have in for visits, it is usually to get a baseline on them because they don’t have much info on them and if they become available down the road somewhere.

    • Liam says:

      I don’t want them to trade down either. I’d rather they traded up for Quinn. But then I really, really really hated the trade down last year for Mccourty. BB is smarter than me. I’ll trust him to do what’s best with a smile on my dial, and defend what ever does happen at the draft.

  21. Jeff says:

    I would peg Von Miller as the most likely trade-up target, which would probably require getting to #5 (probably by trading 17 + 28 and maybe another low-round pick). Remember, the last time Bill traded up it was for Mayo, a linebacker that he thought fit our system perfectly. Miller, to me, seems fairly ideal for what we’re looking for.

    First, he has experience as a 3-4 stand-up rush linebacker, so there’s no projection here. Second, there’s been talk about the Pats wanting a quicker OLB to complement Cunningham — a guy who can both rush the passer and drop in coverage — and Miller seems to fit that bill perfectly. Edge setting may not be as much a priority. Third, he has all the Patriot intangibles you could want.

    I have no doubt that we can then draft a very serviceable DE in the high second (who knows, maybe Clayborn slips), and an OL in the late second (Carpenter, Boling). That’s my dream anyway. I’d feel much more comfortable with that scenario then taking one of the DEs at 17 and then waiting later to draft some 3-4 conversion type who in all likelihood won’t pan out.

    • Jeff says:

      Correction: We never traded up for Mayo. But I still think Miller makes the most sense as a trade up target.

    • John says:

      Mayo was drafted with the 10th pick in 2008 after we traded down from 7. New Orleans used it for Sedrick Ellis.

      My guess is they would have traded down further.

      Dareus and Peterson seem to be the only ones worth the hassle for normal compensation.

      Also, depending on how the QB’s go, moving up might not be as costly. It would seem we hold the gates to the second tier QB range. For political/job security a GM might be willing to trade back for the QB’s at less than “fair market”.

    • TD says:

      The only issue I have w/V Miller is his size for our OLB position. He played at about 235 and got up to 255 for the combine. I don’t think BB even looks twice at a player for OLB at 230-240.

      It seems there are a bunch of other guys bigger for helping set the edge that played DE/OLB in college and are all at end of 1st/start of 2nd round. No doubt Miller would be great for a 4-3 team.

      • Bruschi54 says:

        He is not the Pats ideal size candidate, but I agree he has a chance to be very good. James Harrison is 242lbs and plays like a monster on the edge. Miller may be one of those exceptions, I think he would look pretty good in the red, white and blue.

  22. Hunter says:

    “Don’t assume there will be a 2012 draft.” Thanks, but I’ll go ahead and assume that. It would take a complete implosion of the NFL not to have a draft. For everyone calling for the Pats to trade back, I think that all this maneuver will accomplish is more wasted draft picks. With 22 picks in the last 2 years, plus UDFAs, the team can’t afford to add another dozen + rookies. I don’t love the idea of trading up, but I’d be all for it if the right player is there. I’d trade up for Kerrigan if I was convinced he wouldn’t be there at 17. I still wouldn’t touch Quinn (why does no one seem to care that he has a brain tumor, and plays a sport and position that requires him to jar his head 50 times a day?). I would definitely recommend trading a 2nd this year for a 1st next year. You also have to look at need. In my opinion, the only “high draft pick” needs are OLB and DE. I think there is enough late-round talent in this draft to fulfill the teams needs at RB and WR, RT and OG.

    • TD says:

      I concur, about the only thing that would keep the NFL from having a draft in 2012 is if Congress took away their anti-trust exemption and they had to start over.
      -
      I don’t think BB has a problem with drafting more players. He is always looking to add good football players that will compete and make the team better, whatever the means.

  23. Bill says:

    In previous posts, I was an advocate for the Pat’s to trade up to draft JJ Watt. When I saw mock drafts indicating Watt would be drafted as high as #3(Buffalo) I rejected that draft model.

    I believe the Pat’s were the 4th youngest team in the NFL last year. Given the disaster of the previous two playoff games, I’m now advocating throw everything at this draft year.

    Package #17 and next year’s first round pick to trade up and draft Julio Jones or AJ Green.

    Package # 28 and #33 picks to trade up to draft JJ Watt( now that he is not considered a top ten draft pick).

    Package the remaining picks to trade up and draft Carimi in the first round.

    Trade next year’s second round pick for as many late round(2011) picks as possible. Use those late round picks to draft Boston College players(even though they are not NFL calibre players). That will send a message to high school football players that BC is now the New England Patriots’ farm team. With all the former BC players swarming around the BC football program, the Pat’s will no longer have to be concerned about “character” issues involving draft picks(BC draft picks). Those former BC players will know more about future Patriot’s draft picks from the BC football program than the parents of those players.

    Trade the remaining draft picks in 2012 to acquire late round picks in 2011. Use those late round picks to draft RB’s.

    That scenerio will make the Pat’s the youngest team in the NFL. Given that, the Pat’s will not need any of the 2012 draft picks which have been traded away for leverage in the 2011 draft.

    • John says:

      WOW

      Talk about really,really dumb…………

    • Josh says:

      Don’t assume you can trade for a pick next year when you don’t know if there will be a 2012 draft. It’s more prudent to trade picks for this year only.

      I’m all for going big and love J.J. Watt and Gabe Carimi but above all else, we need a pass rusher. DEs are not really pass rushers in the Pats 3-4. Our best DE ever, Richard Seymour had a career high of 8 sacks and averaged 4. We need an edge-rushing OLB with the potential to generate 10+ sacks and a couple of forced fumbles.

    • John M says:

      I’m glad you’re a patriot fan but please never apply for their general manager position. I also checked out the date you wrote this comment because I thought you were playing an April Fools Day joke on us!

    • Jim R says:

      Bill your an animal. remember the world will end in 2012. All in Baby

    • cc says:

      ***Were six men down easy, ****we have six in the first three round’s,
      That’s six slott’s filled.
      I say use the remaining 3 pick’s this year and as well as 2 from next year
      so we can gaurantee 6 bang-up / knockout type guy’s to fill said slot’s!!!

      No mediocre player’s, no project’s, no value player’s and no B/S hopefull’s;

      Six pick’s in the first three round’s mean’s six slott’s filled that are currently empty & in NEED.

      The additional 3 pick’s from this year’s later round’s + using “two” pick’s from next year’s will simply mean depending on how they are packaged…..
      that our 6 main pick’s are gauranteed too be just that much better in quality and talent level for the slott’s that need filling!!

      I’d do it all day long, but I wouldn’t use all of them from next year( two sound’s good enough and three at absolute max, and I wouldn’t do it unless we took at least two early pick’s in the first 1/2 of the first in order to set thing’s off and set a tone!!!

    • Big Dan from Maine says:

      Bobby Grier is that you???

  24. Jim R says:

    They will not pick at 17,28 or 33. 17 is a trade up chip. It makes sense to look in the 8-12 range. There will be a top teir player who falls. Bowers,Fairley,Quinn or Peterson. You have to go up and grab one of them.
    At 28 Trade out of the first round to a team looking to get back in to get a QB or one of the O-Line studs. Some one will overpay. A 2 this year and a 1 next year? (Reasonable to think).
    33 will be the motherload. It could get them more than 28. At 33 there will be plenty of first round talent teams will go overboard to get.
    I am all in favor of trades however if they stand pat. 6 of the top 90 picks is a ton of young talent. They will own the draft this year.

    • Josh says:

      We may not see many (or any) trades for future picks as the CBA does not provide for a draft in 2012 or beyond. Teams have been advised that trades for future picks are at their own risk. It is possible (however improbable) that this will be the last NFL draft, in which case any tealm that traded a pick this year for a future pick would be SOL.

      • Jim R says:

        Highly unlikely that happens. First off you would create a divide between franchises. Who would want to play in carolina,seattle,Buffalo, Jacksonville, when they could play in new york, L.A. Miami or in Texas. From a league standpoint they will not allow this to happen.
        from a player perspective. With a draft there are some guarentee’s with contract length and a Salary wage scale.

    • Rockdog says:

      I think they will get a king’s ransom for the #33 pick so I actually think they may plan to pick at #28 unless a QB falls to that range and someone desperately wants him. With 12 hours or so for teams to salivate over the #33 pick, the offers are going to be huge.

  25. TD says:

    what trading picks does:

    UP-costs us picks now or in future to move ahead of another team(s) to get a player with more potential, but not less risk.

    DOWN-gives us more picks (chances) to draft guys that will improve the team and depending on the team and round gives us chances at guys like Mayo, Wilfork, Warren in first round if trading team has a really bad year. This year’s #17 could have been #10-12 if Raiders had stayed with Russell at QB.

    • Josh says:

      The CBA does not provide for a draft next year. Trading for future picks is at your own risk.

      Trading up from #17 IF a blue chipper is available costs you a few picks that you get right back when you trade #28 and #33. How many new players can really make the team this year? It’ll be even harder for them without minicamps or a playbook if the labor dispute drags out (unless rosters are expanded to 60).

      BB has a good feel for how much real 1st round value there is, and it’s probably only about a dozen players in any given year. In a normal year, he’s too far away to trade up to get it, too expensive, so he trades back and gets one of the 2nd tier guys he likes. This year, he’s close enough so that a move up to that 1st tier won’t cost too much. You might have a willing partner in Washington, which has few picks in the draft and could use more. IF you have a guy you like, who’s in your 1st tier and won’t cost you much to get, you do it.

      We need game-breaking players now, on both sides of the ball. Touchdowns and turnovers. Brady is a luxury we will not have forever.

      I would not move up for O-line, D-line, RB or CB (unless Peterson falls), but there aren’t many Demarcus Ware’s or Larry Fitzgerald’s in the draft and if you think one of them is at #10 that you won’t be able to get at #17, why not go for it? Especially with a rookie-wage scale in place, take a chance.

      • Jim R says:

        Josh, I agree. I hope peterson falls. A stud like that, no worries for db for next 5-8 years. If he slips to 8 I hope they make a play for him.

      • TD says:

        If you read some of the posts here, we have a defense in need of “studs” at every position and our offense needs “studs” at OT, G, C, WR & RB. That translates into at least 6-7 studs needed for this year alone.

        Just like the 2012 draft could be in jeopardy, there is also no rookie wage scale in place this year or beyond.

  26. Josh says:

    The proposed trade up to #10 is light on the Pats’ side. Based ont eh points, it would look more like the following:

    #10 (1300pts) = #17 (950) + #60 (300) + #126 (46)

    Yes, BB is great at trading back, though it does not necessarily mean he’ll get great players when he does so. Considering that the Pats have drafted 24 players in the last 2 years, and that the CBA did not provide for a 2012 draft, making trading for future picks an “at your own risk” or “buyer beware” scenario, why not move up IF you feel that you can get a blue chip starter, a true game changer that you could not otherwise get at #17? I expect there to be heavy trading in the late first as teams jockey for position to get the QB they want as Locker, Mallet, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick could all end up taken in this part of the draft. Changes are good that BB will trade both #28 and #33 and get a lot of picks as a result; if you can’t trade for players and the CBA not providing for a 2012 draft makes trading for future picks opaque, you trade for more picks in 2011; how many picks do the Pats really need? How many role players can we possibly have? If we can trade up and get a guy that can really make a big impact, like a Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, a guy that can start and has the potential to change the game on Offense or Defense, why not do it? If you move #17, #60, and #126 to move up to #10 to get one of those guys, you still have #28 and #33 to trade to recoup the picks you gave up…seems like a no-brainer to me.

  27. JMC says:

    I don’t see it- If the Patriots trade, I would think they would look for picks in the 2011 mid-second round rather than trading up, or trading for a first in 2012. If they didn’t trdae up for Patrick Willis, they won’t trade up for Quinn.

    • JMC says:

      In this scenario, I would rather see them trade #17 and #60 for Washington’s second pick (#41- I think) and the Redskin’s 2012 first round pick with a 2011 late round, maybe 6th or something added in.

  28. Ken W says:

    I think the only way this happens is if they have a guy on there board that is very highly rated and they think is an absolute stud. Like TD said I don’t think it will be for a pass rushing specialist but most likely a solid guy in the trenches. My guess would be for JJ Watt or Cam Jordan in that order.

  29. Zach says:

    I can’t see them making a move like this to acquire Green, Jones, or Bowers (WHO WOULD???)… Quinn would be good or Watt. Sleeper move up targets are Prince perhaps… Then Tyron Smith comes to mind as well. If the Pats want him they’ll probably have to jump the Lions.

  30. Patriots Draft Guru says:

    A trade up to #13 to get ahead of Jax and preempt SD trading up would be nice to get the best defensive guy available – bet it 3-4 DE, CB, or OLB.

    • Jared says:

      If-(and when) the Pats trade a pick in the first round, it wont be up, i would bet my bank account on that. First off, havnt we learned that Bill doesnt trade UP in the first round, it cost too much. This year in particular….who are you trading up for? Quinn? a 4-3 DE who hasnt played in a year and a half? There also isnt one 5 technique stud (R.Seymour)-in this draft either, Watt-Jordan-Wilkerson, all could be sitting there at 17, and none of them are sure-fire starting NFL DE’s.

      In some prior drafts, i feel like trading up would have made sense, there were players that have fallen that fit the Patriots mold and would have been rather easy to move up and get, but almost aallways trade down, for more picks. Usually i hate it for the most part, but it really is what makes Bill one of the best at drafting. He traded down twice last year in the first round, knowing his guy McCourty would be there, gaining a fourth from Denver, and a third from Dallas. The 3rd from Dallas was traded to Carolina for a 2nd, 33rd overall. The fourth from Denver, Aaron Hernandez, and Bill sneaks in front of the Ravens for the 2nd time in the draft to take the TE they were going to take, (Gronk in the 2nd).

      Bill is sitting there this year with 3 picks between 17-33. The chances Bill likes 3 players at those spots, and his happy where he would be taking them…is slim to none. I feel like history tells us there is almost a 50% chance he trades those picks, not all of them, but id say probably 2 of them. The Patriots will be taking calls from almost every team wondering what they want for the first pick of day 2. Either 28 or 33, will be traded for a 2nd rounder this year, and something for next year in my opinion. Every year the Pats seem to be in the same position upcoming the draft…sitting at the betting table with the most chips. Bill has done a great job of carrying over his bevy of picks into the next draft, and the next one.

      OK, obviously i feel that the Patriots will not trade up in the first round. But if they do, I feel like Minnesota could be a willing team to deal there pick, looking for most-likely a QB they can find later, like…17,28,or 33. U should be able to move up 5 spots to 12th, for the 60 pick alone, if someone falls that you want. 17 and 60 for 12th would work.

      The other team i think could be willing is our old boy Parcells in Miami, scenario…it hinges on MarkIngram beeing there at 15th,(likely). The other, the Patriots beeing interested in pass rusher-Aldon Smith(not so likely). But say Smith and Ingram are sitting there at 15, Parcells is going to take Ingram…Jax is sitting between theam at 16th, and would almost most certainly take Aldon Smith but with Jones-Drew, would not take Mark Ingram…Belichick asks Parcells to swap picks, 15 for 17, in return Miami would get pick 60, and the patriots would get pick 79 from the Dolphins. That trade works out numbers wise, both the Minnesota and the Miami trades match up numbers wise. If they did either, I could then see them almost most definitely trading 28 or 33 for multiple picks, including one in the 2nd round this year, higher than 60 probably.

      • BeenHadLawSchool says:

        Three things:

        1) The costs assciated with trading up have dramatically subsided this year with a rookie wage scale for this draft all but a forgone conclusion in the next CBA

        2) Parcells has officially severed all professional ties with the Miami organization

        3) It is arrogant beyond belief to think that we “know” what Belichick will do in a given draft. He’s consistently shown that the metrics he uses to value players are different from those used by professional prognosticators, probably a large reason why they work for ESPN and he heads one of the most successful professional sports organizations of all time

        • Jared says:

          Okay…Mr Bigwords, ya got me on the Parcells thing, dont know how that slipped my mind, but the scenario doesnt change.

          Now, when i say that it costs too much to trade up in the first round, i dont mean dollars out of pocket….i am referring to the total cost to a franchise to make a significant move up in the first round. For example, if the Bill wants Robert Quinn, and he wants to trade up and get him, it will cost him 2 first round picks, plus a truck load of cash, so now your talking 2 first round draft picks, and a gauranteed serious amount of money. This year, there mayb be a pay scale, but that doesnt change the fact that you would be trading away a pick late in the first round, where you can snag a player like-hmmmm….Devin McCourty, THATS why it cost too much.

          Lastly, is it really arrogant….wait…is it really “arrogant beyond belief”-to think that Bill would not stock pile picks to move up and grab 1 player? really?-has he EVER done this??examples…please. Because im pretty sure the answer is a resounding no. Calling me arrogant for saying that, is like calling me arrogant for almost gaurenteeing that he will trade DOWN with one of those first rounders he has…well, call me arrogant i guess, because im sayin that you can bank on that.

          Never mind that i do not see 1 player that makes perfect sense for the Patriots to move up for. The top OLB in the draft is too small, the top DE’s are fillled with more questions than answers. Now people are talking about the tackle from USC, Bill is too good a drafting offensive lineman to use 2 first round picks to trade up and get 1. The other, is the corner-Prince, you can say that our 2 starting corners are the strength of our defense, and your going to jump up and grab another, doesnt make sense to me. Trading up just doesnt make sense to me this year, maybe im wrong, but id say im right…which, is probably the definition of arrogance but so be it. Check back the first week of May and talk to me.

        • JMC says:

          # 3 is a good point-

      • Jeff V says:

        Jared, great post. Right on the money brotha.

        • BeenHadLawSchool says:

          Listen man, I’m not trying to attack you personally. The “arrogant” language was directed generally at anyone who claims that “we know what belicheck will do”. Has he traded down? Obviously he has, and he manipulates the board better than almost anyone in the league. But to be so dismissive of the possibility that he might trade up is to assume 1) that we have the same expertise and understanding of the Patriots needs/draft board as he does and 2) undercuts the fantastic job he does in manipulating the board to get the players he wants, not just trading back to amass more picks.

          Secondly, it would not cost 2 firsts to move up to draft a player at 10 or 12, likely only one of the 1s and one of the 2s.

          Also, I may use “big words” but at least I can keep a post under 2,000 of them.

        • Jared says:

          Sorry beenfromlawschool, it took plenty of words to tell you, that come the first week of May, why they will have traded down, and not up…again.

  31. TD says:

    I don’t. There should still be top talent available at #17; ie Heyward, Ingram, Harris, maybe Watt (doubtful) or Jordan. I don’t see moving up to get a 4-3 DE projected as OLB in our 3-4 such as Quinn or Smith.

    • Patriots Draft Guru says:

      I’d take Quinn in a heartbeat if he checks out medically.

      • TD says:

        You would move up and give up multiple picks including a first rounder for:

        -DE in college 4-3 that did not drop back in coverage or set the edge much
        -someone who did not play last year
        -guy with possible character issues

        Because we really could use a pass rusher?

        • Josh says:

          Yes.

          Cunningham was a DE in college 4-3 that did not drop back in coverage or set the edge much. Any edge rusher we could draft, other than Justin Houston, is going to be of the same mold.

          Someone who did not play last year, like Gronkowski?

          Guy with possible character issues…he went to a party and accepted jewelry…I can live with that. He is also actually reputed to be a great guy, he has all the talent in the world, and he plays with a non-stop motor.

        • TD says:

          You mean all those guys we drafted in the 2nd round?

    • BAMNATION says:

      no way on ingram






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