Open Thread: Trade Up, Down, or Out?


Belichick: Always on the horn during draft season.

Other than perhaps wearing a hoodie, Bill Belichick might be best known in NFL circles for working the NFL Draft to its fullest – trading up, trading down, and stock-piling picks.

While it is difficult to speculate about trade scenarios without knowing which players would still be available, it’s good to think about how a trade may affect the draft as a whole. How many rookies could conceivably make the team? Where is the value in this draft?

The easy answer here is to predict that Belichick will trade at least one pick into the 2012 NFL Draft. However, with the current CBA situation, the 2012 NFL Draft isn’t scheduled to take place. Albeit a small chance of the 2012 NFL Draft not happening, the Patriots aren’t a team to waste value.

Another implication of the current labor environment is that undrafted free-agents won’t be able to sign with teams until a CBA is reached. In some teams’ minds, that might put a premium on 6th/7th round draft picks.

We’d like to know two things – What do you WANT the Patriots to do? What do you THINK the Patriots will do?

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75 Responses to “Open Thread: Trade Up, Down, or Out?”

  1. rdf63 says:

    San Francisco has 12 picks in the 2011 draft BUT 9 are 4th round and lower. 49ers first 2 are #7 and #45. BIG gap between the first and second picks and 17 picks between the Pats #28 and San Francisco’s #45.
    Pats trade pick #28 for:
    San Francisco’s #45, #115 and 2012 2nd round pick.
    Pats now have the #33, #45 and #60, same 3rd round picks and 2012 2nd round pick.
    There are some good OL that will be available in the 2nd round.

  2. CC says:

    Don’t understand how anybody at the ending of last year and pre this year would have ever expected Neal to be available in the first place. Even if he stayed-he would have only been reliable at best for 1/2 the season played at best. Same with Nick Kazur in regard’s to his type of back injury-at best reliable for about half the season. (Nevermin the pill incident……Then you have the Mankin’s DRAMA.
    From the get go: That’s being down 2 guard’s and a Tackle,,,,,,,,,I’d say safest best is also a Cpl of tough lineman, but i wouldn’t bother with using a pick for a running back, Just grab one from free agency as insurance for Woody & TheLaw Firm.

  3. Bill S says:

    With Brady being mid 30’s, OG Neal retiring , Kaczuk possibly being released, And Light maybe becoming free agent, plus obvious needs along defensive front 7, it would seem that Pats should keep and develop its draft choices, and not stockpile.
    I’d like to see couple of tough OL, and a big RB to bring back a powerful run game. That would open up the field for Brady and make those LB stay home more.

    • cb says:

      rb in f.a

      keep the picks for the ollb de, o line.
      by late rounds best chance for good backs will be gone.

  4. Dan says:

    I just love Julio jones and ir he’s available around 11 or 12 they should send 17 and another pick to get him. I know they need defense and especially a pass rush but i think Jones is smart and tough and would be a great skill upgrade for Brady to target

  5. Tony says:

    I absolutely love the fact that the Pats have pick #33. To think that they gave up #89 last year to get #33 this year is highway robbery. That being said, I doubt they keep it. Some desperate team is going to make an offer the Pats just won’t be able to refuse.

  6. Joe Blake says:

    ….we need a DL, OL and OLB…take the highest rated player at 17, 28 and 33 within those three slots. package 60 and 92 and move up in round 2 and select a WR with some size. The rest of the picks are a crap shoot…focus on a RB. Get Karfty Bob to spend some inherited dough on a free agent or two…one for each side of the ball Ol and DL.

  7. Joe Blake says:

    For once I would like to see BB keep 17,28 and 33. Take a look at any prior draft and check the names of the player chosen between where he was and where he ended up after trading down. See some all pros? I do and it makes me krazy. BTW stay away from Gator skill players…they generally bust al la Jackson.

    • cb says:

      right on joe!

      “For once I would like to see BB keep 17,28 and 33. Take a look at any prior draft and check the names of the player chosen between where he was and where he ended up after trading down. See some all pros? I do and it makes me krazy. BTW stay away from Gator skill players…they generally bust al la Jackson.”

      but up not stay.

      our player swill be gone by those picks

      package our lowest picks first.

  8. Nick says:

    Bills usually plan of trading back and for future picks might not happen this season because there is no 2012 draft scheduled which means no future picks exist. Trading players is also a no so teams are limited to the draft picks they have now.

    I hope BB either trades up or stays where the picks are. I think packaging the 17th with a third to go to 10 to snag Robert Quinn would be the best move. He would NE a perfect fit for OLB and would be an absolute monster. Then later with the 28th and 33rd pucks focus on offensive line, Pouncey if he’s available and d- line, maybe a Mohammed Wilkerson, Phil Taylor, Cameron Hayward

    • TD says:

      I believe that teams can still trade in/out of 2012, but assume risk of no season or no draft. If BB trades into 2012 you can bet CBA is coming soon.

  9. TD says:

    I think he keeps #17 and possibly trade #28 & 33 for most early second rounders he can as we need multiple guys at point of attack on both Defense and Offense.

  10. Common Cent$ says:

    Thanks Bill S, DWE,TD and Bill for playing along with my little scenario regarding moving up in the draft. I can’t recall BB ever moving up in the first round but I think if he was ever going to do it, this would be the year. Don’t forget, Kraft has to pay all these picks and he’s a very shrewd businessman. I believe this year BB will move up in the First rd.(between 10. and 13.) to get his man. I also think he’ll trade the 33rd pick for a second this year and a second in next years’ draft. That is the so-called “QB pick” so it most likely will be Buffalo, Cincy, Arizona or Minnesota’s picks that we’d get. If we’re real lucky they’ll turn this into an auction then who knows what we’ll get.

    • Waldoon says:

      He moved up twice that I can recall off hand. Once for Matt Light and once for Daniel Graham.

      • TD says:

        We moved up in front of Balt for Gronk. Ravens took 2 mediocre TE’s last year.

        Cannot recall if BB ever moved up in 1st round.

    • CC says:

      I beleive he has moved up before.
      Also nice call on Kraft having 2 pay for all these pick’s….
      Combined with the need of “PLAYMAKER’S”; that’s quaility VS quantity, I definetly see the need for moving up in the higher teen’s to snag great talent, and still keeping the 17 for the same reason’s.
      It’s where the meat of the round is with what we need, and it ensures we don’t get left with the choices of what’s left, but rather taking it first.

  11. TD says:

    I don’t understand the burning need to move up here other than you think a certain rookie(s) are going to lead us to the super bowl. But I keep hearing names being thrown around: Quinn, Watt, Smith, Kerrigan, Jordan, Costanzo, etc as guys they should get.

    The problem for me is that the rationale at best is that a blogger saw film on some website such as uTube that shows the guy lighting it up against someone. Are these people, hell even Kiper, McShay et al really NFL coaches, scouts or personnell people able to really, really determine if a certain guy is a fit for Pat’s?

    Even a guy like Billick makes a mock draft, but he did not do the drafting in Balt. it was the GM Newsome. Hell, he even admitted making huge mistakes in drafting Kyle Boller.

    So, in the end who do we believe?

    • Bill says:

      Yeah, but it’s entertaining to pretend to be an expert on the NFL draft. It’s even more entertaining to belittle anyone who disagrees with an armchair expert(because it’s done anonymously).

      I expect an aging Belichich will, unlike previous years, view many college players as a sure source of aggravation for himself and will refuse to draft those players, regardless of their talent level.

      That’s why a lot of the names I see posted on this forum have(in my opinion) zero chance of being selected by the Pat’s this year.

      I believe JJ Watt is the top rated player on their board. They may have to trade up to #10 to draft him. And I expect they will trade up to draft Watt.

      • TD says:

        Even that does not guarantee he trades up to get him. I remember Pioli saying that the most impressive workout he and BB ever attended was Fitzgerald. They badly needed WR’s but never moved up to get him.

        I would be shocked to see BB trade away leverage in the draft to get a DE like Watt.

        • cb says:

          leverage in the draft, whats the point of the leverage if you do not use it for your needs the current year. and with so many picks and so many rookies and youth on our team, we dont need volume, we need elite players and we’ve got the ammo to do it.

  12. DWE says:

    Could always be nice having/ending up with the #10;
    BUT…….. giving up that #17 and the #28……. never mind the “42”?
    (we don’t have a 42? You might mean 92?? though).
    But either way, Giving up BOTH 1st rounder’s just seam’s ARS backward’s too me. That’d be crazy IMO. CRAZY!
    Detriot’s #13……
    Keep’s the #17.
    Keep’s the coveted #33.
    & we move into the eary teen’s of the first at the same time while doing it!
    You’ve got to move into the even “”Eariler teen’s of the first””.
    “It’s where the meat of what we need is”

    Using the board exact anyway….Detriot’s #13 is an even point trade at that. Unless of course we can get the Viking’s to bite for 50 point’s less.

    We end up with not just the #13 overall, but the #17 overall in the 1st.
    We’ll still keep the #33, first overall in the 2nd round,

    Still have our normal 3rd round- at spot #28 #92 overall
    Still have our normal 5th round – at spot #28 #156 overall
    & Still have our 6th rounder.
    (the 6th rounder is actually from The Saint’s @ #26 ) #186 overall.


    I’d tell Washington to put the crack pipe down.

  13. Bill S says:

    There are 10 guys you can guarantee will be gone by #17. If they aren’t take one of them regardless of position: Dareus, Fairly, Quinn, Bowers, Peterson, Amukamara, Green , Jones, Miller, and Gabbitt.
    I include Gabbitt, because SOMEBODY will take him, and I wouldn’t say that about Newton.
    I’ve heard the trade senario of Washington giving up 10 and 42 for 17 and 28, or something like that, which seems like a no brainer with us sitting at 33. We’d have our choice of all the players not on above list, could still get a great player ar 33 ( to say nothing of all those willing to trade vup for a 2nd round QB. Lets do it

  14. Common Cent$ says:

    Hey Open Thread: Is there any way to place value on future picks using the Draft Value Chart? I know Bill’s history has been to get as many picks as he can for the future but how would he put a value on say that 33rd pick?

  15. Common Cent$ says:

    I just went over the Draft Value Chart to see what we could get if we traded up andfound some very interesting possibilities especially if there is going to be a rookie salary cap. Want one of the true studs in the draft? How about Cincys’ No. 4? That has a value of 1800 points and will cost the Pats 17(950)28(660) and 92(132) or 1842 points which means Cincy also owns us their 6th and 7th rd picks. The Browns at 6 (1600) will cost 17 and 28 and they owe us their 7th. The 49ers No.7(1500) costs us 17 and and 33(580) and they owe us a 6th. This is the I like the most, the Redskins at 10(1300) for 17(950) 60(300) and 92(132) plus we get the 106th pick from them also. It appears that at least 2 QBs will gone by then, so actually we can get one of the top 8 non-qbs ,and we would still have another 1st rder(28) and the first pick of the 2nd rd(33), 3rd(74) 2 4ths(106 and 124). I suggest we all check out the Draft Value Chart and see what we come up with. Let see if some could see what’s available if we trade down!!!

    • cb says:

      forget the down trend.
      after that first pick package lower picks and get the other half of the olb and de studs we need.

  16. Ken says:

    I think if the Patriots want to move down a couple from #17
    20. Tampa Bay
    21. Kansas City
    Are two likely teams they would make such a trade with.
    But where I would really expect them to make a move is with #28
    having #33 as well in this draft really puts them in a position to trade away #28 if the deal is right.

    • John M. says:

      I can see the patriots moving down to 20 or 21 with their 17th pick, especially if their targeted players are gone. But with their 28th pick, I think they’ll either use it or move up 2-4 spots to get their player. The 33rd pick is the pick to trade. There will be 31 teams that will wake up the next morning and say how did this player with first round talent not get picked. They all know that the patriots accept offers and there will be plenty on the 33rd pick. This is my educated guess.

  17. TD says:

    It seems to me that BB likes multiple picks in earlier rounds so that he can (1) get a targeted player with one of them and (2) trade down the other pick or out to next year. When trading out to next year he ends up slowly moving that pick up until it is in his “value” area; low first early second which is where he hits targeted players.

    The teams that constantly move up (SD, NYJ) must hit 100% on targeted players and they lose flexibility with extra picks. Now if a team is great at hitting on players by moving up, then by all means they should but I doubt any team is that great.

    Also, even if you hit on a player after the rookie contract is up you either pay him or let him go and try to do it all over again.

  18. Dan says:

    hmm…could seea modest trade up or two in the first round. i like cam heyward and ryan kerrigan as 1st round targets for the pats. this defense needs leadership and character players as much as it needs talent. Kerrigan could be envisioned as the vrabel to mayo’s potential bruschi (need to see more big plays tho), and having spikes and cunny as solid lb’s who are easier to replace if need be.

    Kerrigan I think would have captain written all over him, if he can produce in coverage and still rush the passer effectively. heyward seems like a dick seymour lite, which would add a hell of a lot to our d-line. If kerrigan could lose a few pounds and heyward gain a few while still playing effectively, i could dig it. question is, whom do you select first? and how much do you have to trade up to ensure you get both guys? I think both will be gone within the top 24, so may need to trade up a few picks from 28, and perhaps even trade up from 17 to leapfrog j-ville if you think they want kerrigan.

    • DWE says:

      Your post show’s Exactly why you want to not only KEEP #17. But use some other and draft up into the even earier teen’s as well, (say 11, 12, maybe…..maybe 13 or 14 so that we do not “LOOSE” what we really want & need. Prefferably the VIKING’s or DETROIT at #13 and #14.

      The best pick’s we can get for our team at nearly every every major possition we NEED, are in the first, and in the early/mid teen’s -PERIOD.
      Your Kerrigan is an example ofa late teen currently projected @19.
      *But note Projected: Anthony Castonzo OT @ #14, Aldon Smith DE @ 17,
      JJ Watt DE@ 15 , Cameron Jordon DE @13, T. Smith OT @16, A. Claybourn DE @18, as so many other’s……….What we both need and want are all in the early too mid teen’s!
      Why mess around?
      This is why you draft up into the early teen’s as well as keeping the #17.

      The rest can be almost irrelivant after that.

      *Personally, I have no problem calling team’s like Detriot or the Viking’s.

      I Offer the #28, #60, and #74 on the board worth 1,102 right there.
      Their picks are worth(board value anyway), are 1,150 & 1,200.
      Tossing in the #124 pick worth 48 on the board equates exacly the Detriot pick on the spot.
      I take the #13, and #17 in the first round, walk away with two monster pick’s that basically guarantees & lock’s up “Two of the Four” possition’s I know my team is in short…… DESPERATE FOR.

      “Two out of the four major possition’s we need” are done and done and done with top tier guy’s…….not mediocre, not sub par, not conditional’s and not with the what was left behind……..
      Yet I still walk away with the coveted 1st pick in the second round(which is the money pick), and also still with both my original 5th and 6th rounder’s.

      • DWE says:

        And i forgot too type in as well, that we’ll still additionally also have the #92 overall….. (the other 3rd rounder pick as well…………) : )

      • cb says:

        thats what im sayin. and if we need to, move up from 17 as well.
        target 2 difference makers and get them.

        then o line help

        you’re playin music to my ears.

    • jack sprat says:

      The more times I run through the way that this draft is likely to fall, the more that I see BB trading up from #28 to somewhere around #13. (A likely get if both Tyron Smith and the Prince are gone, as Detroit’s needs don’t match up well with the rest of the value thereabouts.) Then, Bill will squeeze somebody good for that #33 pick, getting his numbers back up.

  19. TomDickHarry says:

    Cherry picking names doesn’t accomplish anything, everyone knows there’s no guarantees but to suggest that BB has traded back to avoid drafting “busts” is just silly……..he doesn’t care what anyone thinks about his picks, when he trades back it’s because he feels he can get more value that way AND STILL LAND HIS GUY, take McCourty as an example……..he sure didn’t trade back when he drafted Seymour and Ty Warren and he drafted Mayo near the top-10 when NOBODY had him on the radar (except Holley from WEEI)…..and he doesn’t care if Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson didn’t pan out….THAT’S WHY IT’s CALLED THE DRAFT…..the point is that when BB drafts he does what he believes is in the best interest of the team…..if the team is getting old and needs talented youth then sure, he’ll trade back and acquire more picks…..but once the roster gets filled with solid players and the team is very close to being a SB contender then HELL YEAH they should trade 1 or 2 of their 6-8 picks to land an impact DE or OLB….outside of those two positions O-line is the only true need this year.

    • stickem43 says:

      TDH…you are right on. There are 5-7 solid DEs in this draft, a couple of which may translate to good OLBs. There are also 5-6 solid OTs. The Pats could stay right where they are now and get 3 VERY good football players who also fill current needs. There is no guarantee that moving up 5 slots will get you THE player at any given position. Success is more dependent on the scouting process than moving up or down on draft day. Volmer and McCourty are evidence of that.

    • cb says:


  20. TD says:

    Sure, why don’t we just trade all our 1st and 2nd round picks for picks #1 & 2 in the draft so we can get the guaranteed talent like the following: Ted Ginn Jr, Gaines Adams, Jamarcus Russell, Vernon Gholston and the top guy Ryan Leaf.

    You seem to forget, these guys are never, never guarantees. Pick a bunch of top picks that don’t make it and saddle your team with dogs and less cap space for at least 5 years. BB trades back to minimize risk of players being “busts”, not because he wants lesser talented players.

    • Waldoon says:

      Right on TD, good comment. Ultimately there’s a ton of value in the First and Second Round this year.

    • DWE says:

      I’m not suggesting by any mean’s whatso-ever, draft up into the top 1,2,3,4,5,6 or even 7 or 8.
      But drafting up…… into a handfull of better spot’s that is say a good say four spot’s higher than our own #17 pick will specifically give us guarentee of the who BB and the rest of the coaching staff REALLY WANT’s and REALLY NEED’s – WITHOUT THOUGHT OR WORRY OF SPECIFICALLY LOOSING THAT KEY TOP END GUY and settling. IN ADDITION to the “guarentee” of that 1st major pick, it as well, still givess us our own mid-first rounder in that #17 to tag another guy like the JJ Watt DE who may be gone by #17 or the Pouncey G/c or the Tyron smith OT.

      Agreed to not draft too high, but it’ll be a sad mistake to not GUARANTEE that the first 2 pick’s are absolute jewels.

      ***+/- Projected currently……… Castonzo #14, T. Smith #16 for OT’s.

      Projected currently……….Cameron Jordon #13, JJ Watt # 15, Aldon Smith #17, Adrian Claybourn #18, Ryan Kerrigan #19, all DE’s

      Projected currently……..Pouncey #21.

      The next Guard is Watkins projercted currently at +/- #37 over all.

      Whats the theme here? There is far too much of what we both want and need, going in the “TEEN’S” when it comes to the over all pick’s.

      Specifically keeping our own #17, and also getting one higher pick in the earlier teen’s is the clear and best possable thing 2 do.

      Drafting into the top 1-7 or so would be a waste IMO. But not keeping the #17 & drafting into the first couple of the Teen’s is also very dumb.

      *Get “two” top tier great player’s off the bat in the first……and then use the rest for what ever may drop.

      Again we need QUALITY playmaker’s first – NOT VALUE first.
      and too much is gone by/in the early teen’s.

    • jack sprat says:

      In my lifetime, there have been exactly three guaranteed, lead pipe cinches. Lawrence Taylor and John Elway, both of whom actually were consensus perfect grades, and Mr. Suh, who was a man among men among men BEFORE he entered the league. (The static that existed before the draft was unquestionably the paid mourners for Tampa Bay’s chances of getting the bestest big fellow.)

    • cb says:

      cap space there will be a rookie cap. no one will maker money year one.
      the players on our team now who are not cutting it will be eating the cap space; the tbc, etc

      2ndly if you can ttell the difference between a suh (ie dareus) and a gholsteen, you probably shouldnt be doing the picking.

      yeah id take the top 2 (ie dareus and eiother miller or quinn) we dont need 9-11 picks. they wont rmake the team and we do need 2 dominat players and some o line help.

      we can afford it.
      and we cant afford to waste any more brady years, (3 maybe more, past 3 gone).

      • Waldoon says:

        9 picks won’t make the team. Let’s see Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk (at least 2 of those 3 are gone), Stephen Neal gone, Quinn Ojinnaka FA, Nick Kaczur will be release without a pay cut, Brandon McGowan FA, Gerard Warren probably gone. We a glut of mediocr DL players like Brace, Pryor, Love, Deadrick that could be pared down. I certainly could see Bill trading TBC, and possibly Merriweather once his shooting issue is cleared up. Mat Slater, Ryan Wendell could be guys on the bubble too. That’s way more than 9. If you are upgrading and can trade a few of your guys for 2012 picks, why not.

  21. DWE says:

    Value Shmalue’.
    We have enough value player’s on this team. We need playmakes that can be dropped inbetween them.

    We need “playmakers”, “top tier guy’s”, who will make an automatic, clear & steady impact themselves, as well that additionally they will automatically make the rest of the guy’s better around them.

    Keep getting more value player’s and all you’ll get is the same thing…..
    a great season for the most part, maybe a cpl of record’s for a few player’s…maybe, some Pro-Bowl votes, probebly into the play-off’s………..& then…….. blown out again becuase it’s all value and sub par personel that just can’t get it done!
    Along with consistent injuries all around.

    Trade up and GUARANTEE top talent. Don’t let key player’s get away and settle for two mediocre player that have value written on their forhead. WE DON”T NEED ANYMORE “PROJECT’S”, WE DON’T NEED ANYMORE “SUB PAR” and/or “CONDITIONAL PLAYER’S”.

    The EXAMPLE: Using guards with Neal-Retired and Mankin’s -all but out the door, and us needing 2 of them……….. Pouncey(who can also play center, is being looked at very steady & hard and has been seen many times at/by Giant’s#19, Miami #15, Jacksonville#16, Tampa#20.
    He’s going in the better of the first round & like it or not, & “the talent level at that possition “clearly” drop’s off after him”-nevermind his versatility is an added bonus too say the least….. If we don’t package pick’s and move up, even if isn’t into the top 6 or 7 persay. We need too still keep the first rounder’s and still move into the “better of the 1st” in order to “NOT LOOSE TALENT THAT WE ACTUALLY NEED”.

    The later round picks #124 fifth -our’s, #156 sixth -our’s and #186
    -from the saint’s are too us regarding our actual NEED’S are USLESS!!

    and BB generally doesn’t have any good rate’s in the third round for pick’s either.

    TRADE-UP…..all day long.

    • cb says:

      that also exactly what i’ve been saying over on since d day:

      “Keep getting more value player’s and all you’ll get is the same thing…..
      a great season for the most part, maybe a cpl of record’s for a few player’s…maybe, some Pro-Bowl votes, probebly into the play-off’s………..& then…….. blown out again becuase it’s all value and sub par personel that just can’t get it done”.

      “Trade up and GUARANTEE top talent. Don’t let key player’s get away and settle for two mediocre player that have value written on their forhead. WE DON”T NEED ANYMORE “PROJECT’S”, WE DON’T NEED ANYMORE “SUB PAR” and/or “CONDITIONAL PLAYER’S”.”

      “TRADE UP!
      The later round picks #124 fifth -our’s, #156 sixth -our’s and #186
      -from the saint’s are too us regarding our actual NEED’S are USLESS!!

      and BB generally doesn’t have any good rate’s in the third round for pick’s either.

      TRADE-UP…..all day long.”

      where have you guys here making sense been.

      oh, i havent been on this site. it’s my fault i’ve been talking to the “value” people and the “bb doesnt do it that way” people.


  22. JMC says:

    I think if they want Pouncy they will need to take him at 17. He will be gone by 28. Kerrigan, who will be a good NFL player, might be gone by 28 as well, but someone comparable will probably be available.

    • PATRIOT FOR LIFE says:

      The best four of each possition: OG OT and DE.

      *Current projections have Pouncey going at over all #21 “if not better than that! The other best 3 “Guards” don’t even begin again until “after the 40th+ over all pick”…….WHAT’S THAT TELL YA’ ABOUT POUNCEY COMPAIRED TO THE REST OF THE PACK? & HOW STUPID THE PAT’S WOULD BE NOT TOO RIP POUNCEY OFF THE BAORD REAL QUICK LIKE???

      *The best four OT’s are all also projected between #14 and #22 over all.

      (and separating both Bower’s and Quinn at #5 and #6 over all of course)
      * The best of the top 5 rated DE’s also go between #’s 13 and #20. Kerrigan being the 20th over all…….

      Unless they do trade up into the better of the first, as well keep their own #17 if not also keeping the 28th….. they will be once agin settling for mediocre by comparrison……..OUCH!

      • cb says:

        for life, ive been saying that since we lost in the playoffs. good points! hope bb has some sense to know when to vary from the theme.

  23. Ken W says:

    The patriots have so much ammo in this draft that they can do whatever they want. #33 is the money pick for them, definitely going to get great value from that pick via trade or player that fell out of the first. I think they will turn it into 2012 1st but all depends on who they value when it gets there. If we do trade up into the 10-12 range that will cost us most likely #17 and #60 so I could see moving back from 28 and picking up an extra 2nd rounder to make up for losing #60 because BB loves the 2nd round picks. That would mean we would end up with top tier guy that fell out of the top 10, still have #33 to do as we please, and another 2nd round pick that is most likely higher then our original #60, NOW THATS VALUE!

  24. TomDickHarry says:


    Washington has made it known that they want out of the #10 spot….they have no 3rd round pick so the Pats may be able to offer their early 3rd and swapping 2nd round spots with WAS to move up from 17 to 10.

    I think the Pats should jump all over that opportunity, Robert Quinn could very well slip that far, or Bowers…..and Aldon Smith and J.J. Watt are highly likely to be available……worst-case scenario they could take BPA or move back a bit and hope for Cam Jordan or Wilkerson but Quinn, Watt, Smith are worth the gamble.

    • cb says:

      someone making sense here.
      we need a qb pressure generating de and olb and we go from one and done playoff team to the superbowl. (with a couple o line pickups mid round).

  25. TD says:

    If the QB needy teams wait for round 2 it would put a whole lot of value on that #33 pick on day 2.

    Imagine if BB could talk someone into their next year’s #1 and they sh*% the bed like 49ers did a few years ago. We could be looking at pick in the 1-8 region again.

    That, folks is why BB trades down, not up.

    • Waldoon says:

      If I trade the 33 pick I’m looking for 4 senarios
      1) A bottom tier team I’ll take a 2012 First and a 2011 4th (puts us in good shape for Day 3)
      2) A middle tier team I’ll take a 2012 First and a 2011 3rd
      3) A top tier team I’ll take a 2012 First and a 2012 2nd
      4) If a low 2nd Round pick team just wants to jump Buffalo and I get no First Round offers I’d take a 2012 2nd and their 2011 2nd.

      Otherwise I use it myself

  26. Ryan says:

    This draft is going to be hard to see whats going on. If the teams in the 1-10 range seem to agree that they are going to take a QB later, than its going to screw the Patriots in the draft, because then all the DL and CB’s and OL will have been taken in that range. However, I think if Gabbert goes 1-5, Locker and Newton will follow in the next ten picks. TO ME, it is imperative that a QB goes in the first 5 picks or else it could be late first, early second for teams to start the QB run. I think there will be a lot of movemnt, and maybe a golden oppertunity to move up and take a DL or OLB of our dreams.

    • Waldoon says:

      On the other hand, if the teams that need QB depth pass in the First Round any one that wants first pick in the Second Round will have to trade with the Devil for pick 33 to jump Buffalo, Cincy, and AZ.
      Teams that don’t want to wait for the Second Round will all look to Bill who has the most flexibility to trade at the end of the First Round too.

    • joe says:

      One person who makes sense. If one qb goes early then they will fly off the board and that will help us

  27. Paul says:

    Trade up with pick #17 to 12 or 13 using pick #74
    Trade down with Pick #33 8-12 spots gaining 2012 2nd rounder
    Trade a 3rd for 2012 2nd

  28. TD says:

    Unfortunately, in trading up we would be competing with SD & NYJ who routinely trade up to get a targeted player. This year those 2 teams are also vying for pass rushers, 5-technique DE and NT so the price will be steep.
    There still will be 1-2 of the above near end of 1st round.
    As for OLine, there will be plenty of guys that fit our zone scheme.

    I was listening to Sirius NFL and they interviewed the TE from Nevade (Green?) and the guy is a physical monster; squats 550 13times, benches 225 30 times, runs a 4.5, has a 42in. vertical!!!! He did a whole lot of blocking for their run game; sounds like a mix of Daniel Graham and Watson in one, probably the same hands too unfortunately.

    • Ryan says:

      To be honest, the whole time was reading about him. I was thinking OLB or OL. I’m not sure if it is to late to convert.

      • Waldoon says:

        Dude weighs 250 pounds OL is a stretch , I say use him as a blocking/pass catching FB and to sub for Hernandez and Gronk at TE. But he’d be a total mismatch if we get him.

  29. JR says:

    Actually Waldoon, you did a lot of research on those nice job

    • Ryan says:

      I was just going to say that. It was nice he through his 2 cents out there. Personally I like the Penn St OL gun Wisinkeski (butchered spelling).

    • Waldoon says:

      Thanks, I had fun putting on my Belichick hat for a few moments. I might have tried to get a RB like Demarco Murray (71 receptions last year) if he falls into the third round.

  30. JR says:

    Trade down baby, get picks for next year

  31. Bill says:

    If this was the pre-Tuna days and we just had consecutive 1-15 and 3-13 seasons, then we should trade down to acquire as many picks as possible. But, since Dick Macpherson is a name most Pat’s fans cannot remember, we should trade UP to acquire talented players who can help the team this season(and there will be a season).

  32. BAMNATION says:

    I would like to see them move up and get Quinn if they can, but otherwise see which OLB they can pick up at 17 as the Chargers have the same defensive needs at 18.

    Otherwise, I see them moving down from 17 or moving up from 28 and definitely will trade the 33rd pick.

  33. Bruschi54 says:

    I think if BB thinks that there is value that matches team need he may try and move up. The obvious defensive team need is a pass rushing OLB and there looks like 2-3 that could go top 12 in Miller, Quinn and Smith. Trading up for one of them would be good move. I think we are solid at DE with Ty Warren coming back and Stroud signing 2year deal, he is still very solid player. Along the DL I think it is more important to find backup NT in late 2nd or 3rd round. If Phil Taylor still available at 33 or Ellis from Hampton at 60 I like either of those picks. Wilkerson may have the ability to play on the nose also but would need to be selected higher.
    After OLB I think the biggest team need with no free agency and lots of questions internally is the OL. No need to trade up with what we have for picks, but if we give up 17 & 60 to move up for OLB, we need to look at Pouncey at 28 & best available OT at 33. I take Pouncey first because I think there is clear fall off in interior lineman in this draft after him, and solid OT’s that should be there at 33 If the team is comfortable with moving to Vollmer moving to left tackle.
    Last trade scenario, if Patrick Peterson slid because of QB’s going top 5, I would not be surprised if BB packaged 17, 60 and something else to snatch him up. He is going to be great player and BB can never get enough solid CB’s.

    • John says:

      This draft is interesting because it seems deep with decent talent and differing opinions on the QB’s.

      A big wild card seems to be the Mallett/Ponder/Locker trio and 33.

      It’s hard to believe that Jerry Jones would not covet an Arkansas QB and Tony Romo should have value. There, except for Houston, everyone 1-12 should seriously consider a QB.

    • JMC says:

      Pouncey may well be gone at 28.

    • Waldoon says:

      Big fall off in interior talent after Pouncey? Well I guess he was a First Team AP All American G or C right? No? Second Team then definitely, right? No? Um Third Team? No?? Wes Bunting has Watkins and Wisniewski rated higher than Pouncey. If you project Carimi at G instead of T he’s rated higher too. While I think they are all very talented I disagree there is a big fall off after Pouncey. I would also say there is a bigger fall off in OT talent after the 5 that will go in the First Round. I did some research on RT’s recently and found that of the top 13, 6 were First Round picks, 3 2nd Round picks, etc. If I looked at the same stats for G’s I think I’d find significantly more in that top 1/3 that were taken after the First Round. In this draft Ijalana, Hudson, Moffit, Boling, Cannon, and several others will be there in rounds 2,3, and 4. We also have more depth on the Roster at G/C then at OT.

      • Bruschi54 says:

        Brady, Welker, Light, Mankins & Koppen have all been All-Pro selections in NFL, yet none were first, second or third team AP All-American selections in college. Wes Bunting may have Pouncey 3rd among interior lineman, but 90% of the other scouting services have him at the top. I guess that’s what makes these sites interesting, it only matters what BB thinks in 6 weeks.

  34. Waldoon says:

    If we can’t get Tyron Smith, JJ Watt, Cam Jordan, or Aldon Smith at 17 I’d consider trading back with Denver for the 36 and 46 pick. There’s so much talent available in the first 2 rounds this year. I’d look for Sherrod at 28, Wilkerson at 33, Martez Wilson at 36, Wisniewski at 46, Danny Watkins at 60, Ahmad Black at 74, Greg Romeus at 92, Cliff Mathews at 124, Armon Binns at 156, Ricky Elmore at 188, David Carter with the comp pick we’ll get.

  35. Josh says:

    If you can get someone you think is a blue chip prospect at #10 and you feel that the fall-off of talent after that person is great, then move #17, #60 and your 4th to Washington to go up and get them. Maybe for Dareus, Quinn, Peterson, Aldon, Green…

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